Final Predictions: The 93rd Academy Awards

That’s right! I’m doing two posts in the same week! How ’bout that? I may have broken a Guinness World Record! 😉 Plus, I’ll be back again soon with some rankings of WandaVision and The Falcon and the Winter Soldier now that both of those shows have finished. I’ll probably rank the episodes and the characters (in separate posts, of course).

I want to keep my opening “monologue”, as I call it, short this time, because I’m gonna get right to the Oscars stuff! I’ll just supply a little bit of background first.

Every year, I write a post about my predictions for the Oscars. Usually, I predict both the nominations and the winners, but this year, I didn’t write about the nominations. To be quite honest, this year, I simply haven’t been affected by a disease informally known as “the Oscar vibe”, unlike previous years. I think that a lot of people have reached herd immunity from this “Oscar vibe” virus. In fact, I am willing to predict that the Oscars will reach an all-time low set of ratings this year. Last year broke the record with only 23.6 million views. The most viewed Oscars ceremony of all time was the 1998 Oscars, when Titanic won Best Picture. In my opinion, the ratings have declined because of the increasing talk of politics, and because there hasn’t been a host since 2018. I hope it doesn’t become part of the normalcy for the Oscars to not have a host. It seems to me that the host keeps everything organized and in line. Otherwise, there’s no opening monologue or a nice transition into the next presenters. Ever since we saw Steve Martin and Chris Rock present together back in 2019, I’ve wanted them to host together! I also wouldn’t mind having Jimmy Kimmel back, even though he hosted two times in a row.

This year, the Oscars is being hosted two months later. The Academy pushed it back due to the pandemic. Last year, the ceremony aired just one month before COVID-19 hit, on February 9th. Thank goodness! It’ll be interesting to watch the Oscars this year. I heard that the attendees will reportedly not be required to wear masks, and they will be holding it in-person. I’m sure the audience will be overwhelmingly virtual, but it’ll still be nice to see people in crowds for a change!

Fun Fact: The highest Rotten Tomatoes score for an Oscars ceremony is the 1996 Oscars at 82%, which Whoopi Goldberg hosted. The lowest is at 12% — it was the 2011 ceremony in which Anne Hathaway was the host.

Anyway, back to what I was saying about the “Oscars vibe”. Besides the politically motivated speeches, I also think that there will be a steep decline in ratings because of, well, 2020. As all of us know, there were barely any interesting movies that released last year because of stupid COVID. Thanks a lot, Corona!

So, that’s why I didn’t do a nominations post this year. But enough about that . . . it’s time for my predictions!

My predictions will be a bit different this year. I’m not going to elaborate as much on the non-main categories, but I will talk more about these categories:

• Best Adapted Screenplay
• Best Original Screenplay
• Best Supporting Actor & Actress
• Best Actor & Actress
• Best Director
• Best Picture

Just a side note here that I haven’t done a ton of research about the Oscars this year, so I don’t have any good guesses on some of the categories (specifically the shorts). I’ll give my credit to the different websites I used for their predictions (The New York Post, Rotten Tomatoes, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, Action Network, The Hollywood Reporter, The Guardian, and Vulture). So, without further ado, let’s get started!

The Shorts

Best Live Action Short Film

• Nominees: Feeling Through, The Letter Room, The Present, Two Distant Strangers, White Eye
• Who Will Win: The Letter Room

I don’t know much about the Live-Action Shorts, but I heard some buzz about The Letter Room when I looked it up. Plus, Oscar Isaac is in it, and he’s a great actor.

• Nominees: Colette, A Concerto Is a Conversation, o Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song For Latasha
• Who Will Win: A Love Song For Latasha

I looked this one up, and it sounds quite interesting. It reimagines the life of a 15-year-old black girl who was shot and killed by a convenience store owner from the perspective of her friend. I haven’t really heard of any other documentary shorts getting this amount of attention, so I’m sticking with my guess!

• Nominees: Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes-People
• Who Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You
• Who Could Win: Opera
• Who MAYBE Could Win: Burrow

The only one I’ve heard of on this list is Burrow. I don’t wanna waste your time, so I’ll move on.

Best Visual Effects

• Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, and Tenet
• Who Will Win: Tenet
• Who Should Win: Tenet
• Who Could Win: The Midnight Sky

This one is pretty obvious. Tenet‘s effects looked great in the trailer, and I’m sure they were even better in the film (which I still have yet to see). I haven’t heard of The Midnight Sky, but a lot of predictees (that’s what I call people who predict the winners) are putting it in second place.

Best Sound

• Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
• Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
• Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
• Who Could Win: Greyhound

I’ve created an entire conspiracy that Sound of Metal was specifically made for the Oscars . . . but the filmmakers weren’t targeting Best Picture. They were targeting Best Sound! They literally named their film SOUND of Metal! One by one, these filmmakers are going to make more movies, each one simply winning ONE award until they climb their way to Best Picture. And then they’ll have ALL the awards! I predict their next film will be named Effects of Visual. If you want to join this conspiracy, comment down below!

By the way, this year, the Academy decided to merge Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing into one category. It’s just their excuse to get out of doing more work!

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Nominees: Emma., Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
• Who Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Should Win: Pinocchio
• Who Could Win: Mank

I don’t know much about the makeup and hair for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but I’ve seen more images for Pinocchio, and they look amazing . . . and creepy. So, I’m not really qualified to say Pinocchio should win, because I haven’t seen a ton of images for MRBB.

I’m going with what the crowd is saying for this one: MRBB.

Best Production Design

• Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
• Who Will Win: Mank
• Who Should Win: Mank
• Who Could Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

I didn’t look into this one, but I did hear somewhere that Mank might win this category. I mainly judged this category by looking at the pictures. Mank is set in the 1930s, so that alone is tough to encapsulate in a production design. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom also has a great background design, but I’m calling this one for Mank.

Best Costume Design

• Nominees: Emma., Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
• Who Will Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Should Win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Who Could Win: Mank

Again, this one I mainly judged from looking at the photos. All the costumes are amazing, but MRBB seemed to have the most impressive clothing design.

Best Cinematography

• Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt), Mank (Erik Messerschmidt), News of the World (Dariusz Wolski), Nomadland (Joshua James Richards), Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)
• Who Will Win: Nomadland
• Who Should Win: Nomadland
• Who Could Win: Mank

I don’t know much about Nomadland, but I do know that pretty much everybody is saying that it will win Best Cinematography. Plus, it’s (obviously) a film about a nomad, and my dad, who saw the film, says that it’s very artistic. Those signs point towards basically a mandate that the cinematography has to be great.

Best Film Editing

• Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Will Win: Sound of Metal
• Who Should Win: Sound of Metal
• Who Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Technically, the math says that The Trial of the Chicago 7 will win Best Editing, but there are several other sources projecting Sound of Metal as the winner. I’m siding with them. From what I know, Sound of Metal is about a drummer, so there’s going to be a lot of drum scenes in the film. Those would be very difficult to piece together in the editing room, so I’m going with Sound of Metal.

Best Original Song

• Nominees: “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “Io sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami . . .
• Who Will Win: “Speak Now”
• Who Should Win: “Husavik”
• Who Could Win: “Io sì (Seen)”
• Who Could MAYBE Win: “Husavik”

This is a close one. The same number of sources have said that “Husavik” will win as the same number have said that “Speak Now” will win. However, “Io sì (Seen)” won the Golden Globe for Best Song, and “Husavik” wasn’t even nominated. But the math is on my side!

Best Original Score

• Nominees: Da 5 Bloods (Terence Blanchard), Mank (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross), Minari (Emile Mosseri), News of the World (James Newton Howard), Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste)
• Who Will Win: Soul
• Who Should Win: Soul
• Who Could Win: Mank

Nothing much to say here. Soul won the Golden Globe for Best Score, so I feel quite confident that it will win the Oscar for the same category, as well.

Best Documentary Feature

• Nominees: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: My Octopus Teacher
• Who Should Win: My Octopus Teacher
• Who Could Win: Time

I’m not a documentary critic . . . I’m a movie critic. Therefore, I’ve never been very interested in this category. However, I think that My Octopus Teacher will win. Even though the math has Time 15.6% more likely to win, everybody else has chosen MOT. I watched the trailer, and it looks interesting. So, this may be a controversial choice, but I’m going with my least favorite seafood dish, octopus. 😉

Best International Film

• Nominees: Another Round (Denmark) in Danish, Better Days (Hong Kong) in Mandarin, Collective (Romania) in Romanian, The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) in Arabic, Quo Vadia, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) in Bosnian
• Who Will Win: Another Round
• Who Should Win: Another Round
• Who Could Win: Collective

Another Round won the BAFTA Award in this same category, and the math points to it winning, so there’s not much competition. And, Mads Mikkelsen is the main character, which bumps it up a point.

Best Animated Feature

• Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
• Who Will Win: Soul
• Who Should Win: Soul
• Who Could Win: Wolfwalkers

It’s almost impossible that any other film besides Soul would win Best Animated Feature. Soul is the only animated film this year with another nomination in a separate category, and it won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA Award in the same category. And, I WANT it to win! It was an outstanding film and one of Pixar’s best, with great vocal performances, fantastic writing, hilarious humor, and a message that resonates during the interim.

Alright, here’s where I’m going to get into more detail about the remaining categories.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bride to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja, and Dan Swimer; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Nina Pedrad, and Dan Swimer; Based On the Borat Character Created by Sacha Baron Cohen), The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller; Based On The Play Le Père by Florian Zeller), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao; Based On Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century by Jessica Bruder); One Night in Miami . . . (Kemp Powers; Based On the Play One Night in Miami by Kemp Powers); The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani; Based On The White Tiger by Aravind Adiga)
• Who Will Win: Nomadland
• Who Should Win: The Father
• Who Could Win: The Father

I don’t think I need to go into a lot of detail on this one. I already detailed a lot on the nominees above, specifically Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (I’ll just stop the title there). Nomadland is very artistic, so it’ll be likely to win. I couldn’t find a single source that said something other than Nomadland would win Best Adapted Screenplay. TBH (To Be Honest), I’m not a fan of artistic films, so I would probably like The Father more. It would be a big surprise if Nomadland didn’t win this category tonight.

Update: Oh, shoot. I forgot that the nominees are listed in the photo above. I just wasted ten minutes typing down all the nominee information! I’m not making the same mistake for Best Original Screenplay.

Best Original Screenplay

• Nominees: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Promising Young Woman
• Who Should Win: Promising Young Woman
• Who Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Promising Young Woman sounds like a very interesting film, and it’s the type of movie that would win an award like this. The Trial of the Chicago 7 won the Golden Globe award for Best Screenplay, but Promising Young Woman won the BAFTA Award. Although the math has Promising Young Woman several points ahead, it’s still quite likely that TTOTC7 could sweep in at the last minute and pick up the award. In fact, I thought that TTOTC7 would win the award until I did some more research. But I’m locking it in. Final answer: Promising Young Woman!

Best Supporting Actor

• Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami . . . ), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
• Who Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya
• Who Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya
• Who Could Win: Sacha Baron Cohen

I don’t really know why the Academy bothered to nominate anybody besides Daniel Kaluuya. He has utterly no competition. Critics have said he was “brilliant” and he blew “[their] mind[s]”. To be fair, I think Sacha Baron Cohen should get some credit. This was a very different role for him, and he deserved his nomination.

It seems like the supporting acting winners are easily predicted. Or, they have been for the last few years. Last year, everybody was very confident that Brad Pitt and Laura Dern would win. This year, everybody’s confident that Daniel Kaluuya and ____ will win. But who’s ____?

Best Supporting Actress

• Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
• Who Will Win: Youn Yuh-jung
• Who Should Win: Yuh-jung or Olivia Colman
• Who Could Win: Olivia Colman

Before I speak about my predictions, can I just point out that it’s really weird that Glenn Close was nominated for both an Oscar AND a Razzie. How is that possible?! Someone please explain that to me in a logical way. I triple-dog-dare you!

Even though Youn Yuh-jung wasn’t even NOMINATED for a Golden Globe, she did win the BAFTA Award, which strongly implies that she’ll win the Oscar. And although Olivia Colman could pull off a shocking win (remember 2019?), it would be very rare. Youn Yuh-jung has it in the bag!

Best Actress

• Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
• Who Will Win: Casey Mulligan
• Who Should Win: Casey Mulligan
• Who Could Win: Frances McDormand
• Who MAYBE Could Win: Andra Day

This race is very tight between Mulligan and McDormand. I don’t even have much to back me up on my choice for Mulligan, besides the math. McDormand won the BAFTA Award, while Day won the Golden Globe. I won’t go very in-depth in this one. I’m just going with Mulligan, no questions asked! SNL invited both her and Kaluuya to host two separate episodes, so maybe they know the truth: both of them will win!

Best Actor

• Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
• Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
• Who Should Win: Chadwick Boseman
• Who Could Win: Anthony Hopkins
• Who MAYBE Could Win: Riz Ahmed

This isn’t as close of a race as Best Actress. Hopkins won the BAFTA Award, but the Brits are just biased towards their own. 😉 Boseman has won some awards for his work in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and based on the footage I’ve seen, it looks like he gave a fantastic performance. Although Hopkins and Ahmed were both great in their roles, as well, I’m quite sure that Boseman will win. It would be a great way to honor his legacy, as well. We will always remember him as an awesome actor. Wakanda forever!

Best Director

• Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), David Fincher (Mank), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Chloé Zhao (Nomadland), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
• Who Will Win: Chloé Zhao
• Who Should Win: Chloé Zhao
• Who Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung

Okay, I may have spent this entire post trashing Nomadland, but I think that Chloé Zhao should (and will) win. I might not agree with her vision artistically, but I highly respect her vision. It would be a historic win, and I’m positive she’ll pull it off. She won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA Award, so let’s add an Oscar to the list!

Fun Fact: Zhao directed Marvel Studios’ Eternals, releasing in November, so, if she wins, I’ll be even more excited for the film!

One more thing about this category: I want to mention that I think Regina King was snubbed from this list! So, a message to the Academy: how dare you!

And now for the big one . . .

Best Picture

• Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Who Will Win: Drum Roll!

• Nomadland
• Who Should Win: Mank
• Who Could Win: Minari

That’s right. I think that Nomadland will be crowned Best Picture. And, although I think Mank should win, I won’t be biased. Based on the research, I would be shocked if a different film won Best Picture. And although the last few Best Picture films have been shockers, I don’t think this one will be. Even though 2020 was an unpredictable year, it won’t have an unpredictable movie awards ceremony! I wonder how the Oscars wouldn’t turned out if all the 2021 and 2022 movies that were supposed to release last year.

Well, those are my Oscars predictions. Thanks for reading, and share your thoughts down below. I’m sure barely anyone will be reading this before the Oscars, but if you are, let me know your predictions!

Now, I’ll use the first eight words of practically ever Oscar winner’s speech: I’d like to take a moment to thank all of the behind-the-scenes workers at the Oscars. They don’t get enough credit, and neither do people in the film industry who work in editing, cinematography, sound, effects, or visual effects. Thank you for your work!

If you want to read my other Oscars posts, here they are:

• https://planetwhizkid.com/2019/02/final-predictions-the-91st-academy-awards/
• https://planetwhizkid.com/2020/02/92nd-academy-awards-final-predictions/

Enjoy the Oscars, everyone!

Whiz Kid out