Here it is, folks. I didn’t think I was going to get to this post since my play is performing, but I can’t brake the chain!
I usually get decently high percentages when it comes to my Oscar predictions (not to brag). However, this year on nominations I only scored right around 67%, while the year before I scored 72%. I wanted to beat last year’s score!
It’s strange, because this year there’s only eight Best Picture nominees, while there’s usually nine. So I, of course, made the fatal mistake of predicting nine nominees. Dangit! Oh, well. That only increased my percentage anyway, but it seems unfair! Maybe I’ll take away 0.1%.
Anyway, there’s not much in the movie news really, besides that How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World is on track to end February’s poor box office results on a high note. I still haven’t seen that or The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part. LOTS OF GOOD MOVIES OUT TO SEE RIGHT NOW! (That last sentence was aimed at my Dad; just sayin’ ;))
I don’t really know what my next post is going to be about. A Captain Marvel post would be too soon, cause that isn’t coming out for another two weeks. I’ll have to think of something. If you have any ideas for me, post them down in the comments section below!
I’m going to get to my predictions in just a second here, but I wanted to let everybody know that I’ve changed my mind. I’m not going to copy the mathematical predictions like I said in my last post. No. It feels like cheating, and I am not a cheater, so no, I am not going to do so. I might use just a little bit of inspiration from it . . . no, I’m not even going to do that! Plus, I already had my predictions down before the math came out, and they were almost exactly as the math predicted (again, not to brag). In this year’s predictions, I will give who will win, who should win, who could win, and who was snubbed/should have been nominated. And the captions you see under the images are the names of the film and the names of the people who would win the award if they won it. So without further ado, let’s go! Here are my predictions. Lights, camera, action!
Best Documentary Short
Nominees: “A Night at the Garden,” “Black Sheep,” “End Game,” “Lifeboat,” “Period. End of Sentence.”
Who Will Win: “Period. End of Sentence.”
Who Should Win: “Period. End of Sentence.”
Who Could Win: “Lifeboat”
Who Was Snubbed: I Have No Idea
I know nothing about any of the shorts, so courtesy to everybody who said this was going to win.
Best Live Action Short
Nominees: “Detainment,” “Fauve,” “Marguerite,” “Mother,” “Skin”
Who Will Win: “Skin”
Who Should/Could Win: “Detainment”
Who Was Snubbed: I Have No Idea
Again, I don’t know anything about the shorts, so courtesy to everybody who said “Skin” would win.
Best Animated Short
Nominees: “Animal Behaviour,” “Bao,” “Late Afternoon,” “One Small Step,” “Weekends”
Who Will Win: “Bao”
Who Should Win: “Bao”
Who Could Win: “Animal Behaviour”
Who Was Snubbed: I Have No Idea
This is the only short category that I know a little about. “Bao” was the only short I saw, but when I saw it in the theater I didn’t care for it a lot. I thought it was very strange but artistic. Artistic isn’t my thing to be honest with you, but it was okay. Next is where we get into the good stuff!
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: “Avengers: Infinity War,” “Christopher Robin,” “First Man,” “Ready Player One,” “Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Who Will Win: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Who Should Win: “Avengers: Infinity War” or “Ready Player One”
Who Could Win: “First Man”
Who Was Snubbed: “Black Panther”
Come on. “Avengers: Infinity War” has to win. The visuals were great! Don’t get me wrong, “Ready Player One” had great visuals as well. “First Man” could win it, but I doubt it. After all, it just had supporting effects.
Best Sound Editing
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Nominees: “A Quiet Place,” “Black Panther,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “First Man,” “Roma”
Who Will Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who Should Win: “A Quiet Place”
Who Could Win: “A Quiet Place”
Who Was Snubbed: “Avengers: Infinity War”
This is a really tight race between “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Quiet Place.” I really don’t know which one could win, but “A Quiet Place” wasn’t nominated for Best Sound Mixing and “Bohemian Rhapsody” was, so I’ll go with the latter.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: “A Star is Born,” “Black Panther,” “Bohemian Rhapsody,” “First Man.” “Roma”
Who Will Win: “A Star is Born”
Who Should Win: “A Star is Born”/”Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who Could Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who Was Snubbed: “A Quiet Place”
Again, this is basically tied between “A Star is Born” and “Bohemian Rhapsody”! At first, a lot of people thought “A Star is Born” would win this category, but then it shifted to “Bohemian Rhapsody,” but I think that the latter will win Sound Editing, so it can’t win both sound categories . . . right?
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: “Border,” “Mary Queen of Scots,” “Vice”
Who Will Win: “Vice”
Who Should Win: “Vice”
Who Could Win: “Mary Queen of Scots”
Who Was Snubbed: “Black Panther”
“Vice” definitely rules this category. I posted a photo of what Christian Bale looks like in real life, and what he looks like as Dick Cheney in “Vice.” The facial features were all makeup, so “Vice” should win! I was really surprised that “Black Panther” wasn’t nominated, because the makeup and hair in that was also really good.
Best Production Design
Nominees: “Black Panther,” “First Man,” “Mary Poppins Returns,” “Roma,” “The Favourite”
Who Will Win: “The Favourite”
Who Should Win: “Black Panther”
Who Could Win: “Black Panther”
Who Was Snubbed: “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
There’s a couple of categories where there’s some tension between “The Favourite” and “Black Panther,” and this is one of them. The production design for “The Favourite” is incredible, but I didn’t want to show it because there’s some slight inappropriateness on it. Wow, I’m really surprised that inappropriateness is a word. Anyway, “Black Panther”‘s design is also quite grand, so it’s hard to say, but I’m guessing “The Favourite.”
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Alexandra Byrne (“Mary Queen of Scots”), Ruth E. Carter (“Black Panther”), Sandy Powell (“Mary Poppins Returns”), Sandy Powell (“The Favourite”), Mary Zophres (“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”)
Who Will Win: “Black Panther”
Who Should Win: “Black Panther”
Who Could Win: “The Favourite”
Who Was Snubbed: Colleen Atwood (“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”)
And this is the other category with tension between “The Favourite” and “Black Panther.” This is a really tough one. People are talking about this category a lot, but I think “Black Panther” might just narrowly defeat “The Favourite.” However, the costume designer for “The Favourite,” Sandy Powell, was nominated twice in this category. For “Mary Poppins Returns” as well. This is getting tricky!
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Caleb Deschanel (“Never Look Away”), Matthew Libatique (“A Star is Born”), Robbie Ryan (“The Favourite”), Lukasz Zal (“Cold War”)
Who Will Win: “Roma”
Who Should Win: “Roma”
Who Could Win: “Cold War”
Who Was Snubbed: Linus Sandgren (“First Man”)
Yes, “Roma” will win here for sure. Who knew Alfonso Cuaron was a great director and cinematographer? “Cold War” is a possibility, but I doubt it’ll win. Also, why was “First Man” snubbed on so many categories?!
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Barry Alexander Brown (“BlacKkKlansman”), Hank Corwin (“Vice”), Patrick J. Don Vito (“Green Book”), Yorgos Mavropsaridis (“The Favourite”), John Ottman (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
Who Will Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who Should Win: “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Who Could Win: “Vice”
Who Was Snubbed: Tom Cross (“First Man”)
If “Bohemian Rhapsody” doesn’t win this category, I am going to freak out. That Live Aid performance was exactly how it was in real life! It has to win! “The Favourite” or “Vice” could also win, but I’m creating a chant, and it is . . . I don’t know, but I’ll figure it out.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “All the Stars” (“Black Panther”), I’ll Fight (“RBG”), “Shallow” (“A Star is Born”), “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (“Mary Poppins Returns”), “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”)
Who Will Win: “Shallow”
Who Should Win: “Shallow”
Who Could Win: Nobody but “Shallow”
Who Was Snubbed: All the Other Original Songs From “A Star is Born”
“Shallow” is one of my favorite songs of all time and there’s NO way it cannot win! I listen to the “A Star is Born” soundtrack almost every day, and it is amazing! I love it!
Best Original Score
Nominees: Terence Blanchard (“BlacKkKlansman”), Nicholas Britell (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Alexandre Desplat (“Isle of Dogs”), Ludwig
Göransson (“Black Panther”), Marc Shaiman (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
Who Will Win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Who Should Win: “Black Panther”
Who Could Win: “Black Panther”
Who Was Snubbed: Marco Beltrami (“A Quiet Place”)/Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”)
I’m kinda mad that the “A Quiet Place” and “First Man” composers weren’t nominated. That music was great! Also, the “Solo: A Star Wars Story” music wasn’t recognized either. Come on, Oscars! It’s hard to say if “Beale Street” or “Black Panther” will win this category. I keep going back and forth between the two, because *spoiler alert* “Beale Street” wasn’t nominated for Best Picture and it’s projected to win this and one other category, but “Black Panther” was nominated for Best Picture and it’s projected to win one category . . . or even zero categories! I don’t know, but I’ll go with “Beale Street.”
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: “Free Solo,” “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” “Minding the Gap,” “Of Fathers and Sons,” “RBG”
Who Will Win: “RBG”
Who Should Win: “RBG” (or “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”, if it had been nominated)
Who Could Win: “Free Solo”
Who Was Snubbed: “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”/”Three Identical Strangers”
I am so frustrated that “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” wasn’t nominated here! Before the nominations came out everybody thought it was going to win! “Three Identical Strangers” was also snubbed. Gosh, Oscar has bad taste (bad joke 🙁 ). It’s really close between “Free Solo” and “RBG” here, but I’m going for “RBG” because it was also nominated for Best Original Song. That doesn’t really sound like a reason to guess it’ll win, but I’m going for it!
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: “Capernaum” (Lebanon), “Cold War” (Poland), “Never Look Away” (Germany), “Roma” (Mexico), “Shoplifters” (Japan)
Who Will Win: “Roma”
Who Should Win: “Roma” or “Cold War”
Who Could Win: “Cold War”
Who Was Snubbed: I Don’t Really Know
I think “Roma” will most likely win this category. I know a lot of you are thinking, “WHAT?! MOST LIKELY? “ROMA” WAS NOMINATED FOR THE MOST OSCARS!!” Well, the Oscars can tend to be unpredictable. You never know . . . you never know . . . . But, yeah, “Roma” will win. (BTW, I Don’t Really Know isn’t a foreign language film ;))
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: “Incredibles 2,” “Isle of Dogs,” “Mirai,” “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Who Will Win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Who Should Win: “Incredibles 2”
Who Could Win: “Incredibles 2”
Who Was Snubbed: “The Grinch”
I really want “Incredibles 2” to win! It’s probably my third or fourth favorite Pixar movie, and it’s great! That’s a bit biased, though, because I haven’t seen “Into the Spider-Verse” yet, but I’ve heard it’s really good, so I want to see it. I thought that “The Grinch” deserved a nomination, but I didn’t expect it to be nominated. That’s not the Oscars’ style. Moving onto the BIG categories!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters (“A Star is Born”), Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”), Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”), Barry Jenkins (“If Beale Street Could Talk”), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”)
Who Will Win: “BlacKkKlansman”
Who Should Win: “A Star is Born”
Who Could Win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Who Was Snubbed: Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole (“Black Panther”)
I really want “A Star is Born” to win this category, but I don’t think it will. “BlacKkKlansman” is a pretty safe bet. I doubt “Beale Street” would win since, again, it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture and “A Star is Born” is pretty unlikely. Plus “BlacKkKlansman” wasn’t projected to win anything else besides this, so this would be its only win. I think they’ve got it almost in the bag, unless one of the others could prove an upset.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Paul Schrader (“First Reformed”), Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”), Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”), Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (“The Favourite”), Adam McKay (“Vice”)
Who Will Win: “The Favourite”
Who Should Win: “First Reformed”
Who Could Win: “Green Book”
Who Was Snubbed: John Krasinski, Bryan Woods, and Scott Beck (“A Quiet Place”)
I am really confused by this category this year. Why aren’t “The Favourite,” “Green Book,” and “Vice” in the adapted screenplay category? They’re all based off true stories: “Green Book” is a true story about Tony Lip and Don Shirley becoming unlikely friends in the south in the 1960’s; “The Favourite” is a true story about Sarah Churchill and Abigail Masham fighting for the affection of Queen Anne; and “Vice,” of course, is a true story about Dick Cheney’s vice presidency under President George W. Bush. So why aren’t they in the Best Adapted Screenplay category? I’m very confused. But, anyway, I want “First Reformed” to win because it and “Roma” are the only original stories, plus it sounds very intriguing. I think that “The Favourite” will win here, though. “Green Book” also has a chance, but I doubt that’ll win, so it’s a win for “The Favourite.”
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams — “Vice” as Lynne Cheney; Marina de Tavira — “Roma” as Sofia; Regina King — “If Beale Street Could Talk” as Sharon Rivers; Emma Stone — “The Favourite” as Abigail Masham; Rachel Weisz — “The Favourite” as Sarah Churchill
Who Will Win: Regina King
Who Should Win: Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone
Who Could Win: Rachel Weisz
Who Was Snubbed: Emily Blunt — “A Quiet Place”
I’m pretty sure that Regina King will win this. Rachel Weisz could cause an upset, but I doubt it. I was really mad that Emily Blunt wasn’t nominated for her incredible performance in “A Quiet Place.” She was great in that! You know what, I just realized that I keep judging the Oscars. How dare I! On another subject, I think that either Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone should win this award. They’re great in everything they’re in, but I’m set on Regina King winning this. Amy Adams is also a great actress, don’t get me wrong, but she’s been nominated five times previously and never won, and she’s up against the odds of Regina King winning, so . . . . Also, Marina de Tavira was a big surprise nominee. Nobody expected her, so she’s out of the race. Yes, Regina King will win this. I’ve said that about the fifth time now.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali — “Green Book” as Don Shirley; Adam Driver — “BlacKkKlansman” as Philip “Flip” Zimmerman; Sam Elliott — “A Star is Born” as Bobby Maine; Richard E. Grant — “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” as Jack Hock; Sam Rockwell — “Vice” as President George W. Bush
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali or Sam Elliott
Who Could Win: Richard E. Grant
Who Was Snubbed: Michael B. Jordan — “Black Panther”/Timothee Chalamet — “Beautiful Boy”
Mahershala Ali rules this category. He won Best Supporting Actor for “Moonlight” two years ago, and there’s no way he can’t win this time. In my opinion, he’s the person that I’m most sure will win out of all the categories. He’s a very talented actor, but that doesn’t mean Sam Elliott isn’t! This is his first Oscar nomination, which is just . . . wrong. How on earth could he not have even been nominated before? GOSH! I was kind of surprised that Timothee Chalamet didn’t receive a nod, but the Academy didn’t even recognize Michael B. Jordan’s performance in “Black Panther”! I didn’t really expect them to, but still . . . . It’s interesting, because Ali won two years ago, and Sam Rockwell won Best Supporting Actor one year ago for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” The rivalry between the two begins! (Evil laugh.)
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale — “Vice” as Vice President Dick Cheney; Bradley Cooper — “A Star is Born” as Jackson Maine; Willem Dafoe — “At Eternity’s Gate” as Vincent van Gogh; Rami Malek — “Bohemian Rhapsody” as Freddie Mercury; Viggo Mortensen — “Green Book” as Frank “Tony Lip” Vallelonga
Who Will Win: Rami Malek
Who Should Win: Christian Bale or Bradley Cooper
Who Could Win: Christian Bale
Who Was Snubbed: Ethan Hawke — “First Reformed”/John David Washington — “BlacKkKlansman”
This is a tough category. I’m almost positive Rami Malek will win, but I’m a little sad that Christian Bale or Bradley Cooper won’t! They both deserve to win, because Christian Bale totally transformed his body to play Dick Cheney (like he does in almost every other movie he’s been in), and Bradley Cooper managed to direct, write, and star in “A Star is Born,” and took vocal and guitar lessons to play the role of Jackson Maine. Also, Ethan Hawke definitely should have been nominated for his awesome role in “First Reformed,” as well as John David Washington. Fun fact, John David Washington is actually two-time Oscar winner Denzel Washington’s son. Here on Planet Whiz Kid, you learn something new every day!
Best Actress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio — “Roma” as Cleodegaria “Cleo” Gutierrez; Glenn Close — “The Wife” as Joan Castleman; Olivia Colman — “The Favourite” as Queen Anne of Great Britain; Lady Gaga — “A Star is Born” as Ally Maine; Melissa McCarthy — “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” as Lee Israel
Who Will Win: Glenn Close
Who Should Win: Lady Gaga
Who Could Win: Olivia Colman or Lady Gaga
Who Was Snubbed: Emily Blunt — “Mary Poppins Returns”/Toni Collette — “Hereditary”
Here’s another controversial category for me. I really, really want Lady Gaga (whose real name is actually Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta), but Glenn Close has never won before, and this is her seventh Oscar nomination! She’s projected to win, so I’m going with her, but there’s a very slight possibility that Olivia Colman, or even Lady Gaga could maybe win. Maybe. But, again, Emily Blunt was snubbed. Twice by the Oscars in one year! She’s one of the best actresses in the present, and she deserved to be nominated. And I wasn’t surprised that Toni Collette wasn’t nominated for “Hereditary,” but she still deserved a nomination. Glenn Close will win this.
Best Director
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron — “Roma”; Yorgos Lanthimos — “The Favourite”; Spike Lee — “BlacKkKlansman”; Adam McKay — “Vice”; Pawel Pawlikowski — “Cold War”
Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who Could Win: Spike Lee
Who Was Snubbed: Bradley Cooper — “A Star is Born”/Peter Farrelly — “Green Book”/John Krasinski — “A Quiet Place”/Damien Chazelle — “First Man”
Lots of snubs here. Lots of snubs. I promise you that when I woke up the day that the nominations came out, I was so goshdang mad that Bradley Cooper did not get a nod! All day, that’s what I thought about. HOW COULD HE GET SNUBBED?! Another surprise was that Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated either, and he definitely delivered some great directing. I didn’t expect John Krasinski or Damien Chazelle to be nominated, but they were also great! UUUUUUUGGGHHH! Should I write a letter to the Academy protesting them? Should I hack into their site and disable the Oscars from being streamed live? WHAT SHOULD I DO?! Oh, I think I have it. I’ll fly out to Los Angeles and ruin the show! Mwa ha ha ha!
Subject change. Anyway, Alfonso Cuaron should and will definitely win this because his direction was very unique in making “Roma” artistic an relatable to the characters. I’m almost positive Cuaron will win, but Spike Lee could win. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible. Adam McKay and Pawel Pawlikowski are pretty much out of the race, but Yorgos Lanthimos is still just barely in. No matter what though, Cuaron will most likely win.
And now, we move onto the final and most important category: Best Picture.
Best Picture
Nominees:
“A Star is Born”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“Vice”
Who Will Win: “Roma”
Who Should Win: “A Star is Born” or “Black Panther”
Who Could Win: “Green Book” or “The Favourite”
Who Was Snubbed: “If Beale Street Could Talk”/”A Quiet Place”/”Mary Poppins Returns”/”Incredibles 2”
Yes, I think that “Roma” will win. And yes, I think “A Star is Born” or “Black Panther” should win. Yes, I think “Green Book or “The Favourite” could win. And finally, yes, I think that all four films above where snubbed. I’m set on “Roma” winning, after all, it’s the favorite for this year. Or is “The Favourite” the favorite? 😉 “Roma” and “The Favourite” both received the same amount of nominations, so either one could take home the Award for Best Picture. However, the Oscars do tend to lean toward the artistic style, and “Roma” is one heck of an artsy film. “Green Book” is another possibility, but I doubt it or “The Favourite” will win. “BlacKkKlansman” or even “Bohemian Rhapsody” have a very slight percentage, but they won’t win either. The point I’m trying to make is that “Roma” is going to win big and bad at the 91st Academy Awards. Or is it? I just realized a minute ago that “La La Land” was projected to win Best Picture in 2017, but “Moonlight” won instead, and Mahershala Ali won Best Supporting Actor in that. What if he wins Best Supporting Actor for “Green Book” again this year . . . and “Green Book” wins Best Picture? I have a theory about inside business happening within the Academy that concerns Mahershala Ali. Is it possible? If “Green Book” wins Best Picture, then yes, it is. You’ll have to find out for yourself at 7:00 Central Time when the Oscars air on ABC!
There were my predictions for you, so we’ll see what my percentage is tonight! I sure hope I have a bigger percentage than last year’s. I don’t remember what last year’s was, but it was right around the 75-90% range I’m pretty sure. Be sure to comment down below on what your predictions are, and what you thought of mine. I’ll talk to you guys again soon!
Whiz Kid out
You totally missed the BIG ONE! But, great post, as usual. Always fun to read your reasoning.
Next year, I will be challenging you!!
What a post…you put a lot of work into that. What was your final percentage? Looks like you did pretty good with your predictions. I look forward to this special Oscars post every year. I love reading your thoughts on who will, who should, and who could win. So fun!! Thanks for all the info you share. 🙂