Your eyes do not deceive you – the “Predictions Before the Nominations” series is back! Five years later, this iconic staple of Planet Whiz Kid has made its grand return to . . . WAIT!
Everything you has just learned . . . is a lie!
Annually, I make sure to write a post predicting the Oscar winners, usually on the eve of the Academy Awards ceremony. However, back in the Golden Age, I used to publish my theorizations (a fancier word for “theories”) on who the nominees would be, as well. Alas, that was on the old Planet Whiz Kid, which infamously crashed in January of 2019, leading to the birth of a newer, more efficient “revival site” as I call it. (Challenge: do a search on this website to see how many times I’ve mentioned this traumatic incident.)
However, I have moved on! And I’m ready to present my official predictions for the 95th Academy Awards nominees, slated to be announced tomorrow, January 24th. This was by far the year that I did the most amount of research regarding the top-tier awards contenders. I started investigating back in August, and I hope all that digging will lead to a gold mine! (A.K.A. a $5 bet I made with my dad.)
The largest percentage I’ve accomplished relating to nomination predictions is 79.5% for the 2020 Academy Awards. For reference, last year’s was 73.4% – however, my winner prognoses were the best yet at 95.6%. I only got one category wrong, and it was a frustrating one: Best Animated Short. It wasn’t even dramatic! I knew halfway through the show that I wouldn’t achieve the bejeweled 100% mark. (And for you fact-checkers out there who claim that I lost the Best Picture category because I initially predicted The Power of the Dog as the winner instead of CODA, the joke’s on you! I changed my answer moments before the show began!)
This year, I’m confident that my research will pay off! So, let’s to the predictions . . . right after some brief entertainment news!
We’re going to bring in Walt the Box Office Guy, who’s filling in for Brad the Box Office Guy, who’s filling in for Paul the Box Office Guy, who has yet to be seen since March of 2021.
Whiz Kid: Howdy, Walt! (*pause*) Walt: Hi. Whiz Kid: How are you today? How's January treating you? (*pause*) Walt: Good. Whiz Kid: Oh-kay. So, I heard that a certain 3D movie about water starring blue people which shall remain nameless just crossed $2 billion worldwide. Can you tell us more about that? Walt: Well . . . it's a movie. Must be good if people are watching it. Whiz Kid: Wow, you're getting wordy! Do you think this film could usurp Avengers: Infinity War at the box office? Walt: Maybe. Whiz Kid: Care to elaborate? Walt: Nah. Whiz Kid: Alright then. Are there any exciting releases to look forward to as we near February? Walt: YES! DEFINITELY! You NEED to see Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey! It's the most hotly-anticipated slasher gore-fest of 2023! It is a MUST-SEE! It's based off the Winnie-the-Pooh books, which obviously incorporated gothic horror elements. Starring Pooh and Piglet as two bloodthirsty killers on a carnage-filled rampage! WATCH IT! Whiz Kid: That's not really my type of movie . . . Walt: Well, make it your type of movie! You don't want to get on my bad side! Whiz Kid: Yikes. Very good, then. Thanks, Walt! Walt: Whatever.
What I wanted Walt to get to was the fact that Avatar: The Way of Water just crossed $2 billion yesterday. It’s now the sixth highest-grossing film of all time and the first film to crack $2 billion in two-and-a-half years. It could overtake Avengers: Infinity War and Star Wars: The Force Awakens by the end of the month!
Those of you who have been reading PWK for awhile know my highly credible theory that James Cameron (director of the Avatar films) has been plotting for decades to take down Star Wars. After a shocking walkout from Cameron’s team in 2019, he’s all on his own now (save for the faithful Sigourney Weaver). Cameron is obviously tinkering with the box office numbers to give people the impression that Avatar is still a thing. It’s been 13 years, Jimmy, wake up!
Anyway, in other stories, the Sundance Film Festival is currently playing in Utah. This allows for some lesser-known indie films to step into the spotlight and have the chance to win a coveted prize at the end of it!
Additionally, a brand-new trailer for Season 3 of The Mandalorian aired during Monday Night Football last week and shattered records, garnering over 83 million views within 24 hours of dropping. This surpassed the previous record holder, the main trailer for Obi-Wan Kenobi, which received almost 58 million views. People are excited for Mando and Baby Yoda to return! This is my most-anticipated TV show for 2023, so I’ll be among the first to watch it when the first episode releases on Disney+ on March 1.
Finally, tickets for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania are now on sale. You’d better buy them quickly, as the newest MCU blockbuster is headed for a strong opening when it comes out on February 17. After all, who doesn’t want to see Bill Murray as a quantum lord?
Now that we’ve cleared that out of the way, it’s time for predictions! So let’s get to it!
Starting with . . .
The Shorts
Best Live Action Short
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- An Irish Goodbye
- Le Pupille
- The Red Suitcase
- Tula
- Warsha
Best Documentary Short Subject
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- 38 at the Garden
- The Flagmakers
- Holding Moses
- How Do You Measure a Year?
- Nuisance Bear
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I’m just hoping these are correct!
Best Animated Short
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
- The Flying Sailor
- Ice Merchants
- New Moon
- Save Ralph
Note: I really don’t know much about the shorts, so thanks to GoldDerby, AwardsDaily, IndieWire, and Variety for the information! These picks aren’t entirely plucked out of thin air by my “sources”. About a month ago, the Oscars released their shortlists, which provide a trimmed-down selection of films vying for certain categories: Best Documentary, Best Documentary Short, Best International Feature, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, Best Sound, and Best Visual Effects. About ten to twenty movies are announced to be part of the limited choices for each category. Plus, film festivals and a few lesser-known awards ceremonies help to boost a short film’s popularity.
Now, we move onto the stuff that I know!
The Technicals
Best Visual Effects
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick
Potential Upset: Thirteen Lives
Others to Watch Out For: Nope; Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Best Sound
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Top Gun: Maverick
Potential Upset: Babylon
Others to Watch Out For: The Batman; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Babylon
- The Batman
- Blonde
- Elvis
- The Whale
Potential Upset: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Others to Watch Out For: Amsterdam; All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
Potential Upset: The Fabelmans
Others to Watch Out For: Everything Everywhere All at Once; Amsterdam
Best Costume Design
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
- The Woman King
Potential Upset: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Others to Watch Out For: Women Talking; Living; Amsterdam; Don’t Worry Darling
Best Cinematography
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Elvis
- Empire of Light
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
Potential Upset: Babylon
Others to Watch Out For: The Batman; All Quiet on the Western Front; The Fabelmans
Best Film Editing
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
Potential Upset: Babylon
Others to Watch Out For: The Banshees of Inisherin; All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Song
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
- “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
- “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Potential Upset: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
Others to Watch Out For: “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise; “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Original Score
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Babylon
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Women Talking
Potential Upset: All Quiet on the Western Front
Others to Watch Out For: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Woman King
The Features
Best Documentary Feature
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All That Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- Navalny
- The Territory
Potential Upset: Descendant
Others to Watch Out For: Moonage Daydream
Best International Feature
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
- Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
- Close (Belgium)
- Decision to Leave (South Korea)
- Holy Spider (Denmark)
Potential Upset: The Quiet Girl
Others to Watch Out For: EO; Corsage; Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Best Animated Feature
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- Turning Red
- Wendell & Wild
Potential Upset: My Father’s Dragon
Others to Watch Out For: Inu-Oh; The Bad Guys; The Sea Beast
The Biggies
Best Adapted Screenplay
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Living
- She Said
- Women Talking
Potential Upset: The Whale
Others to Watch Out For: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio; Top Gun: Maverick; The Son
Best Original Screenplay
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Tár
- Triangle of Sadness
Potential Upset: Aftersun
Others to Watch Out For: Armageddon Time; RRR
Best Supporting Actress
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Nina Hoss, Tár
- Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Potential Upset: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Others to Watch Out For: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Hong Chau, The Whale; Carey Mulligan, She Said; Claire Foy, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actor
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Potential Upset: Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Others to Watch Out For: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Brad Pitt, Babylon
Best Actor
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Hugh Jackman, The Son
- Bill Nighy, Living
Potential Upset: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Others to Watch Out For: Jeremy Pope, The Inspection; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Sandler, Hustle; Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto
Best Actress
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- Cate Blanchett, Tár
- Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
- Viola Davis, The Woman King
- Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Potential Upset: Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Others to Watch Out For: Margot Robbie, Babylon; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway; Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Director
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
- Todd Field, Tár
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- S. S. Rajamouli, RRR
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Potential Upset: Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Others to Watch Out For: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick; Baz Luhrmann, Elvis; Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Best Picture
And the Projected Nominees Are:
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- The Fabelmans
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- RRR
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
Potential Upset: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Others to Watch Out For: Decision to Leave; Babylon; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
There you have it! Thanks for taking a look at my forecast for the 95th Academy Awards nominations. I’m hoping to crack 80%, so wish me luck. Until then, see you next time post-nominations!
Whiz Kid out
Lots of good nominations there, WK! I’m sure many will be accurate as you have a pretty good track record. Even better than your nomination predictions are your Oscar winner’s predictions. You either are very lucky or you do a LOT of research! I’m pretty sure the latter is true for you. 😉 Thanks for sharing your thoughts!!
I’d like to wager on PK’s abilities to get to 100%!!! I’m all in! What a post, what anticipation for this big day! Please, I ask of you, return with results. Our confidence in you as a movie guy, THE MOVIE GUY, wholly depends on your success rate! No pressure!!! Love you, YFA
I have seen very few of these movies, so I know nothing! Good luck, and thanks for all the great information!
So, the question is, did you hit the 80% threshold?? Great info! I’m excited to see what your percentage was.