They’re back! After a year off the air, one of Hollywood’s biggest awards ceremonies has returned to TV ready to pass out trophies to film and television, with a brand new host at the center of it. Two Murphys (Eddie and Ryan) will be picking up honorary accolades, and there’ll no doubt be talk of the controversy swirling around the awards show. But, with a spot back on NBC and plenty of exciting contenders, the 80th installment of this iconic annual special is sure to be captivating!

Oops. That was my unpublished Golden Globes opener from January. Now I don’t feel like rewriting it for the Oscars. Looks like we’ll just have to deal with it.

(BTW, this year’s Globes was not an engrossing spectacle of film and television wrapped up in an impressive display of humor and wit – it was, in a word, mediocre.)

Today, I will be submitting my final, liable-to-change predictions for this year’s Academy Awards. (Oxymoron?) And while there’s going to be plenty to debate (with myself, of course, as the only editor of this post), first allow me a moment to preview the 95th Academy Awards and provide the “origin story” of the 2023 ceremony.

First: last year’s Oscars. How do you define the 94th Academy Awards? Perhaps: unique . . . different . . . varied . . . hostful. (From the Greek for “featuring hosts” – probably.) But none of these adjectives are compliments, per se. Those of you who read last year’s Oscars post will know that I certainly was not a fan of the ceremony held in 2021. I believe words such as “anticlimactic”, “small”, and, perhaps most bluntly, “the worst” were thrown around. But, I can confirm that the 2022 Oscars were indeed an improvement. Thanks to enjoyable winners, lively presenters, and a return to the Dolby Theatre, the 94th Academy Awards were entertaining and, as mentioned before, different. In a good way, though. The 2021 Oscars were different in a bad way. It helped that last year they brought in a new producer, Will Packer, to revamp the show in a sense. And while some decisions, such as the infamous “Oscars Fan Favorite” web-category, didn’t sit well with many, it was still something new and inventive. However, carrying through with the insulting choice to hand out eight awards ahead of time – even after substantial criticism from several within in the film industry – was a definite negative. Luckily, that won’t happen this year.

As for Amy Schumer, Regina Hall, and Wanda Sykes . . . they were what one may have expected. And that diagnosis wasn’t beamingly positive in the first place. In my opinion, anyway. Despite this, having hosts still supplied a center to the ceremony and kept it together.

So, overall, the 94th Academy Awards were better than the year prior, both in reception and ratings, thanks largely in part to a reconstruction by Will Packer – even if it lacked the magic and warmth of previous years. Jessica Chastain won Best Actress, Questlove and Summer of Soul took home Best Documentary Feature, Beyoncé performed, Dune dominated six categories, the Pulp Fiction cast reunited, and Best Picture went to CODA. . . . Oh, also, that actor from Wild Wild West slapped the guy who voiced Marty in Madagascar. But nobody really talked about that.

In November of 2022, Jimmy Kimmel was announced as the host for 2023, after previously taking up the reins in 2017 and 2018. Director Glenn Weiss returns to produce, this time with Tony Award producer Ricky Kirshner. And, you guessed it, controversy has already reared its ugly (albeit riveting) head, this time in the form of an actress named Andrea Riseborough.

On March 12, 2022, a year ago to the day, a small indie film called To Leslie debuts at the South by Southwest (SXSW) convention. The flick focuses on a Texan woman who wins the lottery and wastes all the cold-hard cash. Seeking redemption, the single mother gives everything as she seeks an exit out of addiction. Directed by Michael Morris, the picture also starred Andrea Riseborough in the critically acclaimed lead role, along with other noticeable names like Marc Maron and Allison Janney.

To Leslie was not popular or widely talked about, despite favorable reviews. The film was released in theaters nationwide on October 7th, and accumulated an extremely dismal $31,000. That’s over 73,000x less than the money Avatar: The Way of Water made. However, respected Hollywood star Charlize Theron, an Academy-Award winner, hosted a screening for the film in November. The first awards recognition Riseborough received came that same month, with an Independent Spirit Award nomination, followed by a Chicago Film Critics Association nod in December. That was it. Nothing from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, SAG Awards, or the dozens of other awards shows. Barely anybody had even heard of the film.

Until January. Academy-Award winning actress Gwyneth Paltrow hosted another screening and later posted a strongly positive review on Instagram. Academy-Award nominee Edward Norton brought attention to the film and Riseborough around the same time. A similar pattern continued throughout the month. Celebrities featuring the likes of Jennifer Aniston, Zooey Deschanel, Mia Farrow, Helen Hunt, Rosie O’Donnell, Demi Moore, Sarah Paulson, Amy Adams, Kate Winslet, Jane Fonda, and Courteney Cox all praised Riseborough’s performance. In her Critics’ Choice Award acceptance speech, Cate Blanchett esteemed Riseborough by name. At least four social media posts included the same language, calling To Leslie “a small film with a giant heart” and specifically singling out Andrea Riseborough and the cast.

It seemed that all this commendation was happening a bit too late, having occurred during the first half of January with Oscar nomination voting closing on the 17th. But against all odds, on the morning of January 24th, 2023, Andrea Riseborough’s name was called while Riz Ahmed and Allison Williams announced the nominees for Best Actress in a Leading Role. There were some gasps, and a few claps (ooh, poetry), but the overwhelming feeling in the room was shock.

So what happened? While there was at least some genuine admiration for what was being lauded, there was obviously something more to it. Some reports indicate director Michael Morris used his Hollywood connections to get celebrities like Ed Norton on-board to promote Riseborough’s performance in hopes she and the film would gain Oscar recognition. On January 27th, the Academy announced it was investigating the campaign by which Riseborough received a nomination, with concerns of lobbying being the main issue. This decision was met with a polarized reaction, with Christina Ricci, Marc Maron, and Riseborough herself denouncing the choice, but others eager for answers. Four days later, it was confirmed that Riseborough’s nomination would not be revoked.

Well, that was a rather unnecessarily long look at the open-and-closed story of Andrea Riseborough’s surprise nomination. So, now you have that information, whether you wanted it or not!

It’s possible that emcee Kimmel will mention the uproar over Riseborough’s nomination, but he’ll want to be careful if there’s any chance of Michael Morris releasing his vast club of pretentious celebrity friends upon the late night host!

Two months ago, I made my picks regarding who I thought would be nominated in all the categories this year. I will admit, I was confident! Perhaps too confident. You know where I’m going with this.

After calculating the results, I discovered that my predictions were 73% accurate. While not a terrible score, 80% was the threshold I was hoping to break! With that lower-than-expected outcome, I was forced to pay my father a steep price of $5 due to an incompetent bet I made! My highest nomination score hails from last year, when I garnered around 80%. However, I didn’t include the sections in which I’m not as well-versed, such as the shorts and documentaries. Full-on corruption!

Leading this year’s pack of nominees is Everything Everywhere All at Once, which truly is everything everywhere in the categories with eleven nominations. That mind-bending sci-fi comedy family drama is pursued by The Banshees of Inisherin (another bizarre dramedy) and the German war film All Quiet on the Western Front with nine nominations each. All Quiet is the only film nominated for Best Picture this year that comes from a streaming service (Netflix, of course). The glitzy biopic Elvis follows with eight nominations, accompanied by Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical account The Fabelmans with seven. Tár, which is about a composer who is not real, snatched up six nominations while the massive blockbuster hit Top Gun: Maverick also contains six. Other familiar box office successes like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water round out the top nine, although Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking are nominated for Best Picture in spite of possessing only three and two nominations, respectively.

There you go! Eleven movies in one paragraph! Some of the nominees this year broke records; for example, with his nomination for Best Original Score, John Williams became the oldest Oscar nominee of all time at age ninety, and also broke his own record for the most-nominated living person, and the second most-nominated person of all time, behind Walt Disney. And with both Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick nominated for Best Picture, this marks the first time two sequels and/or two movies grossing over $1 billion are nominated in that category. Judd Hirsch, a contender in Best Supporting Actor, became the actor with the largest gap between nominations, last being nominated for Best Supporting Actor in 1980’s Ordinary People. And Angela Bassett, up for Best Supporting Actress, is officially the first actor or actress to be nominated for acting in a Marvel film. (Thanks for the info, Wikipedia!)

Enough of the fun facts! It’s time to get to the hardcore, muddy, unrestrained business. The predictions! I’ll go category-by-category, lending my theories along with my “signature” analysis of the race. It’s no secret, this year was a tough year! There’s a lot of tossup matches, so this was perhaps my greatest challenge yet. And while I’m not overtly confident that I’ll make it to that desired 100%, I believe I’ve perfected my algorithm after the underwhelming nomination results. Here are my winner prediction records (WPRs) for the last four years:

• 2019: 67% or 16/24, An All Time Low (Best Picture: Green Book)
• 2020: 92% or 22/24, An All Time High (Best Picture: Parasite)
• 2021: 70% or 16/23, An All Time Mediocre (Best Picture: Nomadland)
• 2022: 96% or 22/23, A New All Time High (Best Picture: CODA)

Now, join me as I make my final predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. Lights, keyboard, action!

The Technicals

Best Visual Effects

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar); Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett); The Batman (Don Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy); Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick); Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Avatar: The Way of Water
• Who Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
• Who Could Win: Avatar: The Way of Water . . . or Avatar: The Way of Water – maybe even Avatar: The Way of Water
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once

The original Avatar easily nabbed the win in this category thirteen years ago – there’s zero uncertainty that The Way of Water will repeat. In fact, the giant sequel broke several records at the Visual Effects Society Awards this year, collecting the most nominations in the ceremony’s history and winning every division it was nominated in.

Best Sound

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte); Avatar: The Way of Water (Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges); The Batman (Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson); Elvis (David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller); Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Top Gun: Maverick
• Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
• Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is relatively close. It’s good news for All Quiet on the Western Front that the Academy typically grants sound awards to war movies like Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, and 1917, it’s hard to beat the immersive adventure that Top Gun: Maverick‘s action-packed, jet-fueled surround sound provides. While All Quiet beat Top Gun in the sound category at the BAFTAs, Maverick won against its main competitor at the Cinema Audio Society Awards. Both won in separate categories at the Golden Reel Awards. It could go either way, but Top Gun‘s epic theater experience could mean bad news for All Quiet, which was released on streaming.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová); The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine); Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow); Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti); The Whale (Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Elvis
• Who Should Win: Elvis
• Who Could Win: The Whale
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Makeup & Hairstyling category is burdened with fat suits this year! This is a league that could be an indicator of the tight Best Actor race up ahead later in the show. The sets of makeup artists for both Elvis and The Whale completely transformed their lead actors. Elvis beat out The Whale at the Critics’ Choice Awards and also picked up two awards at the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards, where The Whale won once. (Try saying Whale won once five times.) Remember, though The Whale pulled off the impossible with Brendan Fraser’s prosthetics, the Elvis team was given the task of making everyone look like they were truly in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, in addition to making Austin Butler, Tom Hanks, and Olivia DeJonge look like their real-life counterparts.

Best Production Design

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck, Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper); Avatar: The Way of Water (Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter, Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole); Babylon (Production Design: Florencia Martin, Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino); Elvis (Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy, Set Decoration: Bev Dunn); The Fabelmans (Production Design: Rick Carter, Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Babylon
• Who Should Win: Babylon or Avatar: The Way of Water
• Who Could Win: Elvis
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

If Babylon indeed wins, this will mean that every one of Damien Chazelle’s feature-length films will have won at least one Oscar. Can the crew behind Babylon‘s majestic sets pull it off? Unless there’s a relatively unexpected surprise by Elvis, I think so.

Best Costume Design

• And the Nominees Are: Babylon (Mary Zophres); Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter); Elvis (Catherine Martin); Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata); Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Who Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Who Could Win: Elvis
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Ah! Ladies and gentlemen, on our safari across the Oscar landscape, we come across our first true breed of “tossup”. A wild but beautiful beast, it is. And a bit of a frustrating one. Competitors Ruth E. Carter and Catherine Martin have each won their fair share of awards in the past. Carter won an Oscar for the first Black Panther installment four years ago, while Catherine Martin has been awarded two Academy Awards, both for Baz Luhrmann films – most recently in 2013. Carter and Wakanda Forever won at the Critics’ Choice Awards while Martin and Elvis took home a BAFTA and Costume Designers Guild Award more recently. Academy voters may be a bit skeptical of choosing a sequel to win Best Costume Design, but with Carter’s stunning funeral and underwater wardrobe, anything is possible. Especially with Carter winning a variety of lesser-known accolades.

Best Cinematography

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend); Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Darius Khondji); Elvis (Mandy Walker); Empire of Light (Roger Deakins); Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
• And the Oscar Goes To: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Could Win: Elvis
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)

This division was thrown into prediction mayhem when favored winner Claudio Miranda failed to even receive a nomination! But when in doubt, give the award to the war film.

Best Film Editing

• And the Nominees Are: The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E. G. Nielsen); Elvis (Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond); Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers); Tár (Monika Willi); Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
• Who Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

In a relatively close race, Eddie Hamilton’s masterfully assembled Top Gun: Maverick was the early favorite thanks to its stunning aerial sequences, sharp cuts, grounded human interaction, and tense action. But then Everything Everywhere All at Once swept up the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice Awards in editing. Both films grabbed an American Cinema Editors Award, in which they were split up into different categories. An Academy voter could give the win to Everything Everywhere simply by hearing its title. The film itself is a flamboyant showcase that simply screams editing with its universe-jumping displays and highly choreographed fight scenes – and that should be enough to sway the Academy.

Best Original Song

• And the Nominees Are: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (Music & Lyrics by Diane Warren, Performed by Sofia Carson and Diane Warren); “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (Music & Lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop, Performed by Lady Gaga); “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson, Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler, Performed by Rihanna); “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (Music by M. M. Keeravani, Lyrics by Chandrabose, Performed by Rahul Sipligunj and Kaala Bhairava); “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski, Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne, Performed by Son Lux, Mitski, and David Byrne)
• And the Oscar Goes To: “Naatu Naatu”
• Who Should Win: “Hold My Hand”
• Who Could Win: “Hold My Hand”
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Naatu Naatu” (which translates to “Dance Dance” in English) will sweep this category, as evidenced by wins at the Golden Globes and CCAs. (CCAs = Critics’ Choice Awards.) Additionally, a lack of additional nominations for RRR (which is already a cult classic) will be repaired by the movie winning this category. I would much prefer Lady Gaga and “Hold My Hand” to take home Mr. Oscar, but Gaga’s already had her win four years ago. And luckily, all five songs will be performed at the Academy Awards!

Best Original Score

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann); Babylon (Justin Hurwitz); The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell); Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux); The Fabelmans (John Williams)
• And the Oscar Goes To: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should Win: Babylon
• Who Could Win: Babylon
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)

We come across our next neck-and-neck race! The Golden Globes may have been a bit influential in boosting Hurwitz’s and Babylon‘s chances, but the CCAs were no help, awarding Tár the Best Score award – a film which is not even nominated in this category! All Quiet on the Western Front triumphed over Babylon and took home the BAFTA. But since Bertelmann and All Quiet didn’t compete against Babylon for the Golden Globe, I’m calling it for the German remake.

The Shorts

Best Documentary Short Subject

• And the Nominees Are: The Elephant Whisperers; Haulout; How Do You Measure a Year?; The Martha Mitchell Effect; Stranger at the Gate
• And the Oscar Goes To: The Elephant Whisperers
• Who Should Win: The Elephant Whisperers
• Who Could Win: Stranger at the Gate

I’m not very knowledgable on the short films, so I’m leaving these up to the professionals!

Best Live Action Short

• And the Nominees Are: An Irish Goodbye; Ivalu; Le pupille; Night Ride; The Red Suitcase
• And the Oscar Goes To: Le pupille
• Who Should Win: An Irish Goodbye
• Who Could Win: An Irish Goodbye

This is another close one! An Irish Goodbye is favored by many to win, but Le pupille has double Oscar-winner Alfonso Cuarón’s name behind it. Big names have an influence in the elite Academy circle!

Best Animated Short

• And the Nominees Are: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse; The Flying Sailor; Ice Merchants; My Year of D**ks; An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
• And the Oscar Goes To: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
• Who Should Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
• Who Could Win: My Year of D**ks

Hello, Best Animated Short, my old friend. This was the category last year that barred me from breaking the 100% barrier. I will exact my revenge this year and face it again! My Year of *BLEEP*s and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It both certainly advance some edgy and intriguing titles, but the heartwarming tale of The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, which is produced by household names like J. J. Abrams and Woody Harrelson, should be safe in bringing home the trophy. However, with its appalling snub of the Oxford coma, it’s on thin ice with me!

The Features

Best Documentary Feature

• And the Nominees Are: All That Breathes; All the Beauty and the Bloodshed; Fire of Love; A House Made of Splinters; Navalny
• And the Oscar Goes To: Navalny
• Who Should Win: Fire of Love
• Who Could Win: Fire of Love

This is a category for which I’m strictly relying on the CCAs and BAFTAs, both of which awarded the shocking documentary Navalny, which is about . . . well, Alexei Navalny. And though some votes could be granted to Fire of Love, All That Breathes, and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Navalny should have enough support to break through with enough popularity.

Best International Feature

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany); Argentina, 1985 (Argentina); Close (Belgium); EO (Poland); The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
• And the Oscar Goes To: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Decision to Leave (South Korea)

C’mon. All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated for Best Picture. There’s no need to debate this.

Best Animated Feature

• And the Nominees Are: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio; Marcel the Shell with Shoes On; Puss in Boots: The Last Wish; The Sea Beast; Turning Red
• And the Oscar Goes To: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Who Should Have Been Nominated: The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s visually striking, innovative masterpiece has won so many awards that something else winning would be on par with Jeff Goldblum waking up and acting normal!

Forget about that short film nominee The Martha Mitchell Effect. The Academy is under the influence of the Guillermo del Toro Effect!

The Remainders

Best Adapted Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, Based on the 1929 Novel of the Same Name by Erich Maria Remarque); Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson, Based on Characters Created by Johnson and the 2019 Film Knives Out Written by Johnson); Living (Kazuo Ishiguro, Based on the Original Motion Picture Screenplay Ikiru by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto, and Hideo Oguni); Top Gun: Maverick (Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie, Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Based on the Film Top Gun Written by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.); Women Talking (Sarah Polley, Based on the 2018 Novel of the Same Name by Miriam Toews)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Women Talking
• Who Should Win: Glass Onion
• Who Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale, Story by Guillermo del Toro and Matthew Robbins, Based on the 1883 Novel “The Adventures of Pinocchio” by Carlo Collodi and Illustrations by Gris Grimly)

Sarah Polley’s intense drama Women Talking arguably underperformed with nominations, but this is a race it’s sure to excel in, winning at the CCAs and WGAs. Although All Quiet on the Western Front won the comparative BAFTA Award, Women Talking‘s dialogue-heavy script should resonate more with the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh); Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert); The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner); Tár (Todd Field); Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once or The Banshees of Inisherin
• Who Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Yikes! Now we’re getting into tossup-heavy territory. According to awards tracker Ben Zauzmer’s mathematical model, this is the single closest race of the 95th Oscars!

Martin McDonagh’s mysteriously hilarious Banshees of Inisherin script has picked up wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs for its thematic work, while Everything Everywhere, penned by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (also known as “Daniels”), amassed awards from the CCAs and WGAs, the latter of which Banshees was ineligible for. Though Banshees is perhaps the more sound choice, the Academy loves true originality, and Everything Everywhere definitely has that factor. To confirm this, look back no more than five years ago, when Jordan Peele’s Get Out script was in a close competition with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, also written by McDonagh. The former won at the CCAs and WGA, with the latter gaining momentum from the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. But, Get Out ended up taking the trophy, in no small part to its wildly creative originality. A repeat could certainly happen.

Best Supporting Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever); Hong Chau (The Whale); Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin); Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once); Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Angela Bassett
• Who Should Win: Angela Bassett
• Who Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
• Who Maybe Could Win: Kerry Condon
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

While Best Original Screenplay is perhaps the nearest contest of this year’s Oscars, Best Supporting Actress is the most scattershot. There’s no clear winner, so you’re going to have to rely squarely on guesses for this category.

Angela Bassett seemed to be pulling ahead after wins at the Golden Globes and CCAs, but then Kerry Condon reminded the Black Panther legend that the race isn’t over yet with a win at the BAFTAs. And then, when all seemed lost, Jamie Lee Curtis came roaring in with a surprise win at the SAGs. So what is happening?! Who will presenter Troy Kotsur hand the Oscar to? Well, my odds are on Angela Bassett. After only being nominated once thirty years ago and losing, reparations are in order. Her powerhouse performance in Wakanda Forever stunned critics, and while more traditional voters will be dubious about handing an acting Oscar to a Marvel movie, there’s enough support to get Bassett to the other side. Jamie Lee Curtis will take after both her parents: being nominated, but losing. And while Condon has a chance, this seems to be a sprint between Bassett and Curtis. But Curtis could split some votes with her Everything Everywhere All at Once costar Stephanie Hsu, which opens a victory path for Bassett. But this is hardly a sure thing! Maybe try finding a three-sided coin and flip it.

Best Supporting Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway); Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans); Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Ke Huy Quan
• Who Should Win: Ke Huy Quan
• Who Could Win: Brendan Gleeson
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Comeback actor Ke Huy Quan is 100% the surest (is that a word?) choice in the acting categories . . . and he didn’t even win the BAFTA! Nonetheless, Quan has picked up steam after his wins at the Golden Globes, CCAs, and SAGs, so there’s no reason to read into this one too much: Quan will be one of the night’s first winners.

Best Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Austin Butler (Elvis); Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin); Brendan Fraser (The Whale); Paul Mescal (Aftersun); Bill Nighy (Living)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Austin Butler
• Who Should Win: Austin Butler or Brendan Fraser
• Who Could Win: Brendan Fraser
• Who Maybe Could Win: Colin Farrell
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Five words: Jamie Foxx and Rami Malek. Both portrayed iconic musicians and won a Best Actor Oscar. Austin Butler will follow in their footsteps. A lot more names could be dropped if one were to speak more generally about transformative lead performances. Daniel-Day Lewis. Gary Oldman. Eddie Redmayne. Matthew McConaughey. Leonardo DiCaprio. Want me to keep going? Yes, Brendan Fraser was the early frontrunner, but Butler proved he had support after a surprising BAFTA win that was expected to go to Colin Farrell. And though controversy played a role in why Butler won over Fraser at the Golden Globes, that momentum pushed the 31-year-old forward – plus, it helps that he was a great SNL host. And while Fraser could certainly prevail and ultimately win the prize, talk by Academy voters seems to indicate substantial support for Butler. Either way, eyes will be glued to the screen when Jessica Chastain opens the envelope!

Best Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Cate Blanchett (Tár); Ana de Armas (Blonde); Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie); Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans); Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Michelle Yeoh
• Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett
• Who Could Win: Cate Blanchett
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

Dangit! Why are the acting categories so hard this year?! I could write extensively about Best Actress, but I’ll keep it simple. Who? Michelle Yeoh. Why? I don’t know. How? Not sure. Confidence is not necessarily present in this situation. Cate Blanchett has won Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and AACTA awards; Michelle Yeoh has won Golden Globe, Satellite, and SAG awards. If Blanchett was able to pull off a SAG win, I would’ve predicted she’d overcome Yeoh and win her third Oscar. But Yeoh has gained impetus since the SAGs, and it seems that Academy members are eager to award her showy performance. And, with the surprise nomination of Andrea Riseborough, Blanchett could split enough votes with the dark horse to cost her the race.

Best Director

• And the Nominees Are: Todd Field (Tár); Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once); Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin); Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness); Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
• And the Oscar Goes To: Daniels
• Who Should Win: Daniels
• Who Could Win: Steven Spielberg
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Baz Luhrmann (Elvis); Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Steven Spielberg was the early favorite to win his third directing Oscar, but after losses at the CCAs and, more consequentially, the DGAs, Daniels are looking to become the third duo in history to win the Best Director award with their head-spinning ride through the multiverse. Sorry, Stevey, maybe next time!

Best Picture

• And the Nominees Are: All Quiet on the Western Front; Avatar: The Way of Water; The Banshees of Inisherin; Elvis; Everything Everywhere All at Once; The Fabelmans; Tár; Top Gun: Maverick; Triangle of Sadness; Women Talking
• And the Oscar Goes To . . . Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
• Who Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
• The Rest of Nominees Sorted in Likelihood of Winning: All Quiet on the Western Front (3), Tár (4), The Banshees of Inisherin (5), The Fabelmans (6), Elvis (7), Triangle of Sadness (8), Avatar: The Way of Water (9), Women Talking (10)
• Who Should’ve Been Nominated: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

That’s right! You’re going to see Everything Everywhere All at Once cleaning up at the Academy Awards, with a final confirmation of success coming via Best Picture. The film is currently the most-awarded movie in history, surpassing the record held by The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King since 2004. With dominations at the Critics’ Choice, SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA awards, it’s been awhile since there’s been a film swinging into awards season with such gusto. Unless a major upset happens and Tom Cruise finally wins his well-deserved Oscar or All Quiet on the Western Front repeats the original 1930 film’s winning streak, Everything Everywhere All at Once is officially locked in. (Bolded for dramatic purposes.)

There you have it! That’s the definitive guide to your 95th Academy Awards ballot. Hopefully I’ll win the family bet again and affirm my championship status! (Ah, such humility.) Until then, enjoy the Oscars! And I’ll be back to review my results next time.

Whiz Kid out