Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the 6th Annual Planet Whiz Kid Academy Awards Predictions & Projections Virtual Written-Only Ceremony! Or, as we call it in show business, the APWKAAPPVWOCs (pronounced “ah-pwap-vocks”; lots of silent letters). Beginning in December of each year, I’m known to semi-psychotically obsess over who will be nominated for the Academy Awards and eventually who will be declared the winner on Oscar night; or, as ABC knows it, “Those Movie Awards That Help Keep Us Relevant”. It’s their film version of the Super Bowl, except somehow longer and with 1/7 as many viewers.

And of course they’re scheduled to take place on the same day as Daylight Saving Time, just like last year. In other words, the Oscars are so long. . . . “How long are they?” The Oscars are so long that Earth has to change its entire time function for them! Okay, not my best, but certainly not the worst. You heard the jokes at the Golden Globes in January, right?

But before we get to Projectionland (a loose parody of “Barbieland”), I’m going to, as usual, do what the Best Costume Design award winners do every year: stretch this thing out no matter if the audience cares or not. (No offense, Hollywood hemmers and sewers. I certainly don’t want to get on your bad side!)

First, a brief reflection on last year’s Academy Awards.

The 2023 Oscars marked a complete return to normal for the oft-troubled ceremony. Following 2021’s COVID-cursed, location-changed, hostless, and all-time lowest-rated show, and, perhaps more vitally, 2022’s triple-hosted, experimental, spaced-out, sloppy, and slappy ceremony, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences needed stability more than ever. Enter James Christian Kimmel. Actually, change that to “reenter”. Good ol’ Jimmy had hosted the Oscars twice before, in 2017 and 2018, doing a respectable job. And if the Oscars did something that wasn’t terribly received, that meant the producers had basically achieved the same level of accomplishment as securing world peace. Thus, Jimmy was summoned to Oscar headquarters (if those exist) last year to emcee a normal, casual, classy, nonviolent ceremony. And that’s basically what happened.

The 95th Academy Awards definitely weren’t anything to write home about (or, in this day and age, use the power of Facebook to endlessly ramble on about), but they also weren’t anything to get bent out of shape about (or, again contemporarily, use the cataclysmic power of X to ceaselessly trash and personally insult). So, overall, they were fine. There were some good speeches every now and then, things didn’t become overly political, and there weren’t any presenters assaulted onstage. Mission accomplished! (Oh, what I’m referring to when I mention an assault is that some guy slapped another guy at the Oscars a few years ago. I think Chris Rock might’ve gone after Will Smith.)

The main criticism of last year’s Oscars was that they were too “safe”. I completely understand that, given that I myself agreed with that conclusion for awhile, as well. However, that was probably the right choice. No, they weren’t very riveting, but the producers’ main goal was just to get through an okay ceremony without any major mishaps like another mixed-up final envelope. (Oh, what I’m referring to when I mention a mixed-up envelope is that the wrong Best Picture winner was announced at the Oscars a few years ago. I think they might’ve called it for Moonlight, but La La Land actually won.)

While there wasn’t any controversy involving last year’s Oscars show (to the detrimental disappointment of TMZ), it was only common courtesy for it to make its dramatic entrance following this year’s nominations announcement back in January, which was hosted by Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid. (Poor Zazie and Jack. They get a phone call from the Academy: “Hello, this is the Oscars. We would love it if you would take time out of your very busy schedule to do us the honor of hosting . . . the nominations announcement! See you in January for ten minutes, toodle-doo!” How dismaying.)

Given the critical, commercial, and cultural success of July’s surprise blockbuster Barbie (which, if you didn’t guess, is about Barbie), filmmaker Greta Gerwig was widely expected to nab a nod for Best Director, and Margot Robbie for Best Actress as the beloved titular plastic hero. Gerwig had been previously nominated for her acclaimed 2017 dramedy Lady Bird, which was also up for Best Picture. Her 2019 Little Women remake was also among the Academy’s top nine pictures of that year, though Gerwig missed out on a Director nom in a femaleless year for that category. (New word.) With lots of awards support thrown behind Barbie, Gerwig received directorial recognition in the form of Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and Directors Guild of America Award nominations. Robbie, meanwhile, achieved Best Actress acknowledgements in the four “precursor” awards necessary to almost guarantee an Oscar nod: the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and Screen Actors Guild Awards. And then January 23, 2024 came: a day which will live in infamy. Or people will just forget about it in two weeks’ time.

While Barbie received a solid eight nominations, including Best Picture, both Gerwig and Robbie were absent in their respective categories. “Gasp!” cried both awards pundits and media outlets, the latter hoping to stir up a nice hot pot of debate (known to them as “mo’ money for us, mo’ problems for society”). Disappointed cries from Barbarettes (my custom nickname for Barbie fans, who will inevitably receive an official designation in the near future) echoed across the internet, with accusations ranging from an ignorant snub by the Academy to a misogynistic air floating around the Dolby Theatre. Things shockingly (italicized for sarcastic effect) made it to The View, where previous Oscar host and EGOT-winner Whoopi Goldberg argued that since art is subjective, there’s no such thing as “snubs”. An interesting take, despite one that wouldn’t calm the tension.

Quite literally the last thing I want to do is get involved in what could deteriorate into a Bravo-adjacent feud over who was wrong and who was right. (You can just hear it: “Oh my absolute gosh, Greta was totally wronged. Margot deserved better. I can’t take the injustice!”) However, whatever the argument may have descended into within the dark confines of X does not remove the core of the “issue”. Whoopi is right that art is subjective, so therefore it is obviously dependent on the individual whether or not they believe that Miss Gerwig and Miss Robbie were each “snubbed”. Since I haven’t seen every film up for contention in Best Director and Best Actress, I can’t say what my opinion on that particular topic is, but I thought that Gerwig and Robbie both did very respectable jobs in their roles (the fancy way of saying, “they were good!”). However, I think a lot of the criticism directed towards the Academy doesn’t take in the whole picture and is thus unfair. A) As already stated, art is subjective, and these were Mr. Oscar’s personal decisions; B) Gerwig and Robbie have both been nominated before in the categories in which they were “snubbed” this year; C) Gerwig and Robbie are both additionally nominated for the film in different categories this year, Gerwig for Best Adapted Screenplay as a screenwriter alongside her husband Noah Baumbach, and Robbie for Best Picture as a producer; D) The “snubs” don’t indicate the Oscars to be misogynistic, since Robbie was left out of a category made up of 100% women (it’s called Best Actress, people!) and Gerwig arguably lost out her nomination to Justine Triet, another female director; E) Their movie was still nominated for eight awards, including Best Picture! There’s no reason not to dance the night away!

Well, I delved deeper into that than I desired. Alas, that’s often how it goes on Planet Whiz Kid, known colloquially as my brainchild, however mentally scarring that may be for the reader. So, to prevent my descension into yet another subject, let’s, as the kids say, move on. (However, for any more hot takes from Whiz Kid, comment below! Think of the most contentious, thorny, loathed issue imaginable! Actually, no, bad idea.)

This year’s Oscars is particularly exciting given how good of a year it was for cinema! While it was certainly hit-or-miss at the box office (just get back up on that horse, Disney), the hits were like a Fresh- Prince-level slap across the face! Any leftover films that were postponed due to COVID finally made it to the big screen (or maybe Max, if you’re being distributed by Warner Bros.). Obviously there was the juggernaut known as Barbenheimer, which dominated both money-ly back in July and now awards-ly here in March. (Again, I’m basically just doing Dictionary.com’s job for them.) Plus, with a string of other successes and some top-notch film festival debuts, 2023 was a gain for the film industry! Although, to reiterate, most of that was because of an existential doll and the atomic bomb inventor. Who knew that Oppenheimer’s accomplishments would reverberate almost eighty years after World War II in the form of helping Universal Pictures gain back their losses from Fast X? . . . .

With the abundance of entertainment that pleased each type of moviegoer, this enthusiasm should reflect itself in the Oscars ratings this year. (ABC is just praying that they mentioned enough times Barbenheimer being up for plenty of awards.) So, my first final prediction of this post will not be in regards to an Academy Award winner, but a Nielsen winner! (I’m guessing 60% for the “I Get It” accuracy on that mediocre joke.) My guess for this year’s Oscars’ average viewer count is 23.4 million, almost the same amount as the last pre-pandemic show in February of 2020.

Alright, with all of that rather unnecessary pre-prediction information out of the way, it’s time to move on to Whiz Kid’s Final 2024 Ballot. Oscars ballot, not presidential. The latter would not be as fun.

The Ballot

The Shorts

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• And the Nominees Are: The ABCs of Book Banning; The Barber of Little Rock; Island in Between; The Last Repair Shop; Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
• Who Will Win: The Last Repair Shop
• Who Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
• Who Could Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

By the way, this year’s “Who Should Win” picks are not my personal opinion, but rather the general consensus I see across the all-knowing web. We’re getting right down to business starting with this category, and it was a bit of a tough call this time since I originally had The ABCs of Book Banning down to win. But reading about the actual heartwarming storyline behind The Last Repair Shop (No way I’m summarizing it here, look it up yourself!), and seeing how popular it is overall, changed my mind. Plus, it’s won a handful of awards that could help propel it to Oscar victory.

Best Live Action Short Film

• And the Nominees Are: The After; Invincible; Knight of Fortune; Red, White and Blue; The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
• Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
• Who Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
• Who Could Win: The After

Zoinks! Another category that turned out harder to predict than I suspected it would. Auteur Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, based off the Roald Dahl book, is definitely the popular pick to take home the Oscar, but anything is possible given the presence of the more solemn short film The After, which has picked up quite a few accolades. (Red, White and Blue, meanwhile, shouldn’t win because it brazenly lacks the Oxford comma.) However, GoldDerby and its five reasons to believe TWSOHS will win pushed me to believe in the power of Wes and Roald! (Sounds like an ’80s duo.) As the site mentioned, TWSOHS, which is a Netflix original, is likely the most viewed of all five shorts, the voters might see it as an opportunity to award the currently Oscar-less Wes Anderson, and it stars an impressive cast including Benedict Cumberbatch, Ralph Fiennes, Ben Kingsley, and Dev Patel, all previous Academy Award nominees or winners. On the contrary, as Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian points out, this category is often viewed as a chance to award newcomers to the filmmaking profession, not directors with seven previous nods. It’s every nominee for himself, so anything is possible, but I’m sticking with Mr. Henry Sugar!

Best Animated Short Film

• And the Nominees Are: Letter to a Pig; Ninety-Five Senses; Our Uniform; Pachyderme; War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
• Who Will Win: Letter to a Pig
• Who Should Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
• Who Could Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Darn you, Oscar-nominated shorts! Yet again, I underestimated the stresses of choosing a winner for Best Animated Short Film! In 2022, this was the single category that I lost out on, raising the stakes for last year, in which I successfully predicted The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Which avenue will I go down this year? War Is Over! seems like the mildly obvious pick at first; many enjoy the music of John and Yoko, and it has a unique animation style. However, this could be the Academy’s opening to pick an artsy, non-mainstream short that doesn’t boast big names, unlike Henry Sugar in the Live Action grouping. Plus, Pixar’s Once Upon a Studio, celebrating Disney’s centennial anniversary, was projected by many to win at first, and it didn’t even receive a nomination. That could illustrate where this voting body’s tastes lay: in bacon! I’m going for Letter to a Pig! (Unless I change it at the last minute, of course, which is completely allowed!)

The Technicals

Best Visual Effects

• And the Nominees Are: The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, and Neil Corbould); Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima); Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stéphane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams, and Theo Bialek); Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, and Neil Corbould); Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco, and Neil Corbould)
• Who Will Win: The Creator
• Who Should Win: The Creator or Godzilla Minus One
• Who Could Win: Godzilla Minus One
• Honorable Mentions: Oppenheimer; Poor Things; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

(Thanks for hogging the spotlight with your unseemly three nominations, Mr. Neil Corbould! How dare you!)

Yes, we might as well get all the hard predictions out of the way first. (Spoiler alert: there’s more than I realized.) This is a rare category wherein any of the five nominees could prevail. When Oppenheimer shockingly and bizarrely didn’t even make it onto the shortlist of twenty potential nominees, it became anyone’s game, particularly when Oppenheimer later won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Visual Effects and Poor Things won Best Special Visual Effects at the BAFTAs. This is the first Oscar nomination for both the Godzilla and Mission: Impossible franchises, both of which had their own incredible cinematic outings this year. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 features stunning and weird sci-fi visuals, some of the MCU’s best to date. Napoleon could be popular with those who voted for the winner 1917 a few years ago with its intense war scenes. But it’s The Creator that I think could end up taking home the trophy, thanks mainly to a second surprise nomination for Best Sound (indicating more voters have paid attention to the film than the snobs at IndieWire thought) and also a dominant run at the Visual Effects Society Awards, which are important tell signs for this category. Anyone, specifically Godzilla, could still swoop in, so judge for yourself . . . but also listen to me only. The Creator has it!

Best Sound

• And the Nominees Are: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
• Who Could Win: The Zone of Interest
• Honorable Mentions: Barbie; Ferrari; Killers of the Flower Moon

Oh, gosh. This is the one I’ve dreaded. And we’re already here! I suppose it’s time to rip off the Band-Aid. (This post is not sponsored by Band-Aids.) For the longest time, I very confidently asserted The Zone of Interest as the winner, but I’m doing a last-minute pivot to Oppenheimer. Why? War films often get wins at the Oscars, and while Oppenheimer isn’t necessarily a “war film”, it is a Christopher Nolan film. The Dark Knight, Inception, Interstellar, and Dunkirk, all Nolan films, have won at least one sound award (back when this category was split into Sound Editing and Sound Mixing). While The Zone of Interest is extremely sound-based, and probably should win, it failed to rack up many nominations in the technical categories, including Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Score. It did win Best Sound at the BAFTAs, but Oppenheimer did very well at the Golden Reel and Cinema Audio Society Awards, so that is my very uncertain pick. If, however, The Zone of Interest does win this category, I will fall into a deep depression.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• And the Nominees Are: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Maestro
• Who Should Win: Maestro
• Who Could Win: Poor Things
• Honorable Mentions: Barbie; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; Killers of the Flower Moon

Grr . . . the BAFTAs just have to make everything harder, don’t they?! Maestro seemed like a sure winner at first thanks to the transformation of Bradley Cooper into famed conductor Leonard Bernstein, plus its unique hairstyling throughout the decades it takes place in. And then Barbie, which didn’t make it onto the shortlist, won Best Makeup at the Critics’ Choice Awards (CCAs), and Poor Things at the BAFTAs. But let’s remember that Poor Things was overly popular with the BAFTAs, winning Best Special Visual Effects despite not earning an Oscar nomination in that equivalent category. Although there was a decent amount of controversy when a first look image of Maestro revealed a prosthetic nose applied to Cooper, that seems to have dwindled by now, at least diffusing enough to allow the film to win two critical awards at the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild Awards. Those wins, plus a general voting appeal to Oscar members for the film’s era-specific effects, should push Netflix’s Oscar-baity biopic to earn at least one of the awards it was made to seek.

Best Production Design

• And the Nominees Are: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Barbie
• Who Should Win: Barbie or Poor Things
• Who Could Win: Poor Things
• Honorable Mentions: Asteroid City; Maestro

Again, I blame the BAFTAs. Barbie took the CCA, Poor Things took the BAFTA. Which side are you on? I’m going with the former, thanks both to its purely colorful set design and a little year called 2018. Ever heard of it? Well, in 2018, both Black Panther and The Favourite were released, and Oscar-nominated the following year in Best Production Design. The Favourite was the favorite to win (hilarious, see what I did?), but Black Panther prevailed and pulled out the win. Black Panther won the CCA, The Favourite won the BAFTA. Black Panther featured grand sets with unique color palettes, while The Favourite sported a subtler, intricately detailed look. And the final twist: The Favourite was a Yorgos Lanthimos film, just like Poor Things!

Okay, it might not be on that level of shock, but nonetheless, the case is compelling! Ken will be proud when his Mojo Dojo Case House wins Barbie an Oscar.

Best Costume Design

• And the Nominees Are: Barbie (Jacqueline Durran); Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West); Napoleon (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman); Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick); Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
• Who Will Win: Barbie
• Who Should Win: Barbie
• Who Could Win: Poor Things
• Honorable Mentions: Maestro; Wonka

Ken will also be proud when his lavish costumes when Barbie another Oscar. The exact five nominees return from Production Design, and it seems very likely that the same film will share wins in both Production and Costume Design, so unless I just copy and paste my Production Design argument for Barbie, that’s all I’ve got! (Mic drop.)

Best Cinematography

• And the Nominees Are: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Could Win: Poor Things
• Honorable Mentions: Barbie; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3; The Holdovers; The Zone of Interest

Okay, finally an obvious category! Hoyte van Hoytema has won CCA, BAFTA, and ASC awards for his stunning cinematography in Oppenheimer. From BnW (the trendy way of saying “black-and-white”) to color, intimate moments to physics spectacle, and that Trinity Test scene alone, all shot using an IMAX camera, Oscar has given Mr. Hoytema his stamp of approval!

Best Film Editing

• And the Nominees Are: Seen Above
• Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Should Win: Anatomy of a Fall or Oppenheimer
• Who Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall
• Honorable Mentions: Barbie; Maestro; The Zone of Interest

Like Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer editor Jennifer Lame did the impossible: piece together a three-hour biopic about the atomic bomb told from various perspectives, taking place over several timelines, and moving along at a rapid pace. Count on her to be up onstage!

Best Original Song

• And the Nominees Are: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (music & lyrics by Diane Warren, sung by Becky G); “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (music & lyrics by Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt, sung by Ryan Gosling); “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (music & lyrics by Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson, sung by Jon Batiste); “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (music & lyrics by Scott George, sung by Scott George and The Osage Singers); “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (music & lyrics by Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell, sung by Billie Eilish)
• Who Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”
• Who Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”
• Who Could Win: “I’m Just Ken”
• Honorable Mentions: “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin

Either way, Barbie‘s got it. Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O’Connell won in this category two years ago for their song “No Time to Die” from . . . No Time to Die. Subtle. Well, at least they didn’t title their song “Barbie” this time, but they’ve still won a Golden Globe and Grammy for their work on the melancholy tune. “I’m Just Ken” (an unexpectedly great power ballad) nabbed the CCA, but the onstage Kenergy will stop when the more downbeat Barbie song wins. (Obviously I’m not biased at all.) Expect Billie and Finneas (Billeas . . . Fillie?) to be some of the night’s final winners.

Best Original Score

• And the Nominees Are: American Fiction (Laura Karpman); Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams); Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson); Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson); Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
• Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
• Honorable Mentions: Barbie

It seems that all the easy categories are simply dominated by Oppenheimer. Ludwig Göransson’s stunning and characteristically erratic score will quite conceivably win him his second Oscar, but don’t entirely count out the late and great Robbie Robertson clinching an upset for his final film score.

The Features

Best Documentary Feature

• And the Nominees Are: 20 Days in Mariupol; Bobi Wine: The People’s President; The Eternal Memory; Four Daughters; To Kill a Tiger
• Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
• Who Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
• Who Could Win: To Kill a Tiger
• Honorable Mentions: American Symphony; Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Despite American Symphony getting a nod for Best Original Song and also winning at the Producers Guild of America Awards (PGAs), and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie garnering acclaim and a CCA, they were both omitted on nomination day. So, we go to the next most likely winner, 20 Days in Mariupol, a stirring and bleak overview depicting the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last year, Navalny won in this category, and with tragic recent events making that win all the more timely, it appears that documentaries about Russia will achieve back-to-back victories.

Best International Feature

• And the Nominees Are: Io Capitano (Italy); Perfect Days (Japan); Society of the Snow (Spain); The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany); The Zone of Interest (Germany)
• Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
• Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
• Who Could Win: Society of the Snow
• Honorable Mentions: Anatomy of a Fall (France); Fallen Leaves (Finland); The Taste of Things (France)

Many awards pundits have mused about what this category could have been like had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall instead of The Taste of Things for their International Feature pick, thus leading to an intense showdown between AOAF and The Zone of Interest, a British film in German subtitles. (Complicated, huh?) But thanks to this being the sixth consecutive year in which one International Feature nominee is also in the running for Best Picture, simple logic will conclude that The Zone of Interest will be triumphant.

Best Animated Feature

• And the Nominees Are: The Boy and the Heron; Elemental; Nimona; Robot Dreams; Spider-Man: Acorss the Spider-Verse
• Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• Who Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• Who Could Win: The Boy and the Heron
• Honorable Mentions: The Super Mario Bros. Movie; Suzume; Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

In a mildly tough race, it seems that the second installment in the Spider-Verse saga edges out Hayao Miyazaki’s (seemingly) final film about what I can only presume is a boy and a heron. Miyazaki’s acclaimed piece won at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, with Spider-Verse gaining momentum with CCA and PGA wins. But with Spider-Verse achieving as much, if not more, popularity than its Oscar-winning predecessor, I wouldn’t bet against it. Actually, don’t bet on any of my predictions. That’s too much pressure! DON’T DO IT!

The Screenplays

Best Adapted Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: American Fiction (Cord Jefferson, based on the novel “Erasure” by Percival Everett); Barbie (Noah Baumach & Greta Gerwig, based on characters by Ruth Handler); Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan, based on the biography “American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer” by Kai Bird & Martin J. Sherwin); Poor Things (Tony McNamara, based on the novel of the same name by Alasdair Gray); The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer, based on the novel of the same name by Martin Amis)
• Who Will Win: American Fiction
• Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Could Win: Oppenheimer
• Honorable Mentions: Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.; Killers of the Flower Moon

Whoever guessed that the inventor of Barbie would ever receive an indirect Oscar nomination? I guess anything is possible. (Except Arnold Schwarzenegger getting nominated at some point. That’s sci-fi-level stuff.) This category has been an interesting one to track, from Barbie switching from Original Screenplay to Adapted Screenplay shortly before nomination voting, and Killers of the Flower Moon getting snub-smacked. (Another new Whiz Kid term!) For awhile, I figured Poor Things could grab this one, but then American Fiction won the CCA, and secured its lead with a very surprising win at the BAFTAs, winning Best Adapted Screenplay besides that being the sole category it was up for. But with a somewhat lack of complete momentum going for American Fiction, any of the nominees could snatch a win, though Oppenheimer‘s awards love puts it in second place. However, don’t make the mistake of thinking this one through too much, or you’ll land yourself in the nearest “happy place”. Just go for the commended comedy American Fiction!

Best Original Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet); The Holdovers (David Hemingson); Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer); May December (screenplay by Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik); Past Lives (Celine Song)
• Who Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
• Who Should Win: The Holdovers or Past Lives
• Who Could Win: The Holdovers
• Honorable Mention: Air

Like Adapted Screenplay, there’s another somewhat lack of major enthusiasm for any of this set’s nominees. The Holdovers was the very early favorite, projected to win this category pre-Golden Globes, before Anatomy of a Fall unexpectedly picked up the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay and then, on the flip side, expectedly seizing the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay. It’s a German courtroom murder mystery; come on, of course it’s going to win an Oscar!

The Stars

Best Supporting Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
• Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
• Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
• Who Could Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won over fifty-five awards, come on!
• Honorable Mentions: Penélope Cruz, Ferrari; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Julianne Moore, May December

There’s no need to talk any more about this. Miss Da’Vine has won a Golden Globe, BAFTA, CCA, SAG, Independent Spirit Award, Satellite Award, and several more. No need to fret on this one.

Best Supporting Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction; Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling, Barbie; Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
• Who Will Win: RDJ
• Who Should Win: RDJ or Ryan Gosling
• Who Could Win: I’m not giving into my own mandatory answers! It’s RDJ!
• Honorable Mentions: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Charles Melton, May December; Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

It’s been fifteen shameful years since Robert Downey Jr. has received an Oscar nomination. Given the Academy’s flagrant crime of not giving the film icon any recognition for his MCU role as Tony Stark, it’s about goshdang time they give him credit for another amazing role! Apologies, I get rather profane when I’m upset.

Best Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Colman Domingo, Rustin; Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer; Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
• Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy
• Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti or Cillian Murphy
• Who Could Win: Paul Giamatti
• Who Really, Really, Really Wants to Win: Bradley Cooper
• Honorable Mentions: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon; Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon

I won’t even mention Bradley Cooper’s Oscar campaign that virtually started as soon as Maestro‘s first picture was released. I sincerely hope the Academy gives the man an Academy Award at some point in the near future; he doesn’t even have to get nominated, they don’t have to vote or anything, just locate an Oscar backstage and hand it to him. He’s already booked his next directing/acting gig, so I fear what awards aftermath will happen once that releases. But Brad aside, this was a race that looked like a potential shootout at first. Murphy and Giamatti both won Golden Globes, followed by Giamatti’s unexpected victory at the CCAs. Murphy, as widely predicted, took the BAFTA, so it came down to the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which have become the key awards in terms of projecting the Oscar acting winners over the past few years. All eight film acting SAG winners over the last two years have been the same eight to win the Oscar within that timespan, as well. While many, including me, suspected Giamatti to win the SAG (he had won thrice before), it was Murphy who ultimately came out on top, carrying what appears to be a twelve-foot-high, three-hundred pound trophy back home in Ireland. With Oppenheimer in for a big night, that will spread to Murphy’s brilliant performance as the titular physicist, as well.

Best Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Annette Bening, Nyad; Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan, Maestro; Emma Stone, Poor Things
• Who Will Win: *dramatic drum roll* (if there is such a thing) . . .

• . . . Emma Stone
• Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone or Emma Stone
• Who Could Win: Lily Gladstone
• Honorable Mentions: Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple; Greta Lee, Past Lives; Margot Robbie, Barbie

In what has become the most hotly debated race of this Oscar season, I am boldly, and surprisingly semi-confidently, proclaiming Emma Stone as the winner! Unless she loses. Then I’ll come back and edit this post to make it seem like I predicted Lily Gladstone all along. Some background first: both stones (whether glad or regular) won Golden Globes in separate categories, then regular Stone won a CCA and a BAFTA, and Gladstone’s last-ditch effort to win the SAG worked. I know I just said that SAG is basically the end-all-be-all of the acting categories, but . . . I can’t think of a good comeback to that.

Here’s the case for Stone’s win: Poor Things wasn’t exceedingly popular with SAG, failing to earn an Ensemble nomination, while Killers of the Flower Moon did (though it lost to Oppenheimer, of course). Five years ago, Olivia Colman won in a major upset for Best Actress in The Favourite, another Yorgos Lanthimos film, as previously mentioned. Gladstone’s Flower Moon role is a split between leading and supporting, while Stone seems to be the center around which Poor Things revolves. Plus, the Academy loves a grand, physically-based performance. Many are comparing this scenario to last year’s, in which previous Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett (who won a Golden Globe, CCA, and BAFTA for Tár) was in an extremely tight race with eventual victor Michelle Yeoh (who won a Golden Globe and SAG for Everything Everywhere All at Once), but there’s a few differences. First, Everything Everywhere was extremely popular with the Academy, winning seven awards, but Poor Things doesn’t seem to have that momentum. Second, Gladstone wasn’t even nominated for a BAFTA, unlike Yeoh. Third, while Everything Everywhere All features an ensemble cast, Yeoh’s character is still very much the main character, like Stone’s and not Gladstone’s.

So that is my official justification for my pick of Emma Stone! Hopefully I’m correct; otherwise, I just wasted a bunch of wrist energy.

The Last One Before Best Picture

Best Director

• And the Nominees Are: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest; Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things; Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
• Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan
• Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan
• Who Could Win: Yorgos Lanthimos
• Honorable Mentions: Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Greta Gerwig, Barbie; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Celine Song, Past Lives

Similar to a few other major nominees this year, Nolan has won practically every award imaginable for his masterful directorial achievements in helming Oppenheimer, a story about the nuclear bomb’s development that became one of his greatest works and what some are already calling a major cinematic standout in the 21st century. While there were several great directing contenders this year, including those who weren’t nominated, Nolan has rightfully earned his first Academy Award after somehow only one previous nomination (for his other fantastic World War II piece, Dunkirk). With an impressive catalogue including Memento, The Dark Knight trilogy, The Prestige, Inception, and Interstellar, Nolan is one of the best filmmakers working today, and an Oscar will only affirm that.

The Big One

Best Picture

• And the Nominees Are:
• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

• Who Will Win: Oppenheimer (or, more bluntly, duh!)
• Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
• Who Could Win: Poor Things or Anatomy of a Fall
• Honorable Mentions: Air; The Color Purple

It’s an Oscar tradition for me to sit at my keyboard, going back and forth between two different possible films that could win Best Picture, much to the agony of the reader. Not this year. It’s been awhile since something has absolutely swept every influential awards ceremony like Oppenheimer. Winning several categories, including the top prizes, at the Golden Globes, CCAs, BAFTAs, DGAs, SAGs, and PGAs, there’s almost zero percent chance that the historical epic won’t win. Unless something were to pull off a Shakespeare in Love-style upset, Oppenheimer is as safe as Private Ryan. (Or was he safe? Haven’t seen it yet.) Normally the awards-sweeper film is the villain of Oscar season, but not Oppie. It’s a film widely acclaimed by both critics and audiences, and rightfully so. It’s a monumental, stunning, grand, emotional work of art, and it is the Best Picture of the year. (At least that I’ve seen. I’m not in the hundreds yet like the Academy members.)

So, there are my official, probably final predictions for the 96th Academy Awards! Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to watch the Oscars, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, airing on ABC at a new time, 7:00 P.M. ET. Wish I could say I’ll see you there, but the Academy has yet to invite me. How ill-mannered!

Until then, best of luck on your ballot, and I’ll see you next time!

Whiz Kid out