Well, they’re here once more. The awards show that never seems to never die (for better or worse, arguably), the awards show that Jimmy Kimmel has attempted to hijack the last two years, the awards show that’s all about movies presented on massive cinematic screens but which itself is broadcast on the small world of the television, has returned for its 97th year of gold statues, hit-or-miss jokes, and often tone-deaf speeches. Hooray. . . .

In all seriousness, I may play all hip and careless regarding the influence of the Man in Gold, Mr. Oscar himself, but I have indeed spent hours of my life obsessing over the year’s coming nominees and winners . . . hours upon hours that I will never get back. Nonetheless, the palpable excitement of multi-millionaire celebrities hoping for affirmation and a literal statue that calls them the “best” is something that brings about an aura of cultural anticipation each year. (Alas, have we not yet figured it out?)

Typically, my annual Oscars prediction extravaganza post is disturbingly in-depth, excruciatingly detailed, and painstakingly researched, activating learning areas of the reader’s brain that neurologists up until now knew nothing of. However, no doubt to the upheaval of my more devoted fans (the stalker types that are hard to shake; my goodness, my public life is embarrassingly followed) and conversely the noted jubilee of the rest of this site’s obligated acolytes (AKA, the relatives forced to read such essays), I shall try something I have yet to attempt in my writing career: shorten. Instead of providing comprehensive recaps and exhaustive previews, I’ll jump right into dissecting this year’s categories not with a scalpel, nay . . . but a shovel. (Poetically intended to convey my broader approach to this year’s predictions.)

Of course, this is a difficult trek for me. Despite the outcry of protests from the most loyal of my followers, I’ll be aiming for merely an hour of read-time compared to the average seven. I have voluntarily made this momentous decision, journeying across the wastelands of time and energy to instead focus my outlook on the broader picture (or Best Picture, amiright?!). Also, I’m being forced to attempt pithiness due to the time. In other words, procrastination has poisoned the hope of meticulousness.

Profundity of my words aside, I have spent perhaps a fifth as much time religiously attending to the inner thoughts of Oscar himself as last year. Following my shocking and devastating downfall in the $30 family Academy Awards betting pool (my first ever loss, in the course of ten years; I grant insincere congratulations again to Classic Car Grandpa), I spent days, weeks, months traversing the fields of irrelevance, clinging to the very memory of victory as I learned to surrender to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. (Shakespeare plagiarized me on that last line, FYI.) So while I have indeed chosen to “get back on that horse”, as an unknown Texan once formulated, it is no longer a horse: aye, ’tis a pony.

Did I take vitamins from the correct pill bottle today?

So, in other words, I’ve simply let awards season play out as it may, noting the winners and so on without digging much deeper into the abyss of faux sophistication and dirty determination that characterizes the awards campaign season. That all changes now. (Please wait a moment before moving onto the next paragraph, for dramatic effect.)

As previously mentioned, I won’t be diving into as thoroughly encyclopedic specifics this year; in fact, I’ve barely observed the awards pundits’ predictions up until now, as I’ll primarily if not completely be going with my easily vexed and often incorrect gut assumptions, trusting my oft-faulty conscience will lead me to somehow regain the Legend of the Lost $30. (The confidence is astounding, it is not?) Yet, this vow may not remain, given that I’ve already exerted much keyboard energy in this opening. Thus, without further ado, lights, camera, action!

Welcome to the 7th Annual Planet Whiz Kid Academy Awards Predictions & Projections Virtual Written-Only Ceremony!

Final (?) Predictions: 2025

The Shorts

Best Documentary Short Subject

• And the Nominees Are: Death by Numbers; I Am Ready, Warden; Incident; Instruments of a Beating Heart; The Only Girl in the Orchestra
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Incident

Y’know how I said that I’d be basing my calls on my own instincts, as opposed to the awards media consensus? Yeah, about that . . . ain’t gonna happen in the Shorts department, which is far from my area of expertise. As for Documentary Short Subject, I’ve seen pundit predictions assert a case for each and every one of these nominees. I’ll go with The Only Girl in the Orchestra simply because it’s an uplifting feature that has a broader demographic thanks to a Netflix distribution, although any of these mini-docs could sneak in for the win, even the bleaker ones about police brutality, death row, and school shootings (not the most fun crowd). This strategy worked for me when I tagged the positive pick last year, The Last Repair Shop, also about instruments. Has Fender, the source of Big Instruments, secretly corrupted the Academy? This year’s winner could prove that highly probable theory.

Best Live Action Short Film

• And the Nominees Are: A Lien; Anuja; I’m Not a Robot; The Last Ranger; The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
• And the Oscar Could Go to: A Lien

Curse these short-film categories! I’m stressed out already, and the night’s political tension hasn’t even begun yet! Another long-titled flick, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent, might pull it out thanks to its support from short film festivals and having won the Short Film Palme d’Or at Cannes this last year. But don’t count on it as a certainty.

Best Animated Short Film

• And the Nominees Are: Beautiful Men; In the Shadow of the Cypress; Magic Candies; Wander to Wonder; Yuck!
• And the Oscar Goes to: Magic Candies
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Yuck!

ERGH! (Figure out what that exclamation sounds like in your own head.) Another close race where any nominee could pull it out, but I’m going with the apparently heartwarming Magic Candies because . . . why not? I already hit rock bottom last year, so I’ve got nothing to lose! However, I will literally kick myself if Yuck! proves its frontrunner status right.

The Technicals

Best Visual Effects

• And the Nominees Are: Alien: Romulus; Better Man; Dune: Part Two; Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes; Wicked
• And the Oscar Goes to: Dune: Part Two
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Dune: Part Two
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Wicked
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Gladiator II; Mufasa: The Lion King; Deadpool & Wolverine

Ah, at long last we’ve seen the Promised Land! I may never have the courage to predict another Short Film again after those rough projections. As we finally dig into the delightful meal that is the technical categories, we start off with an easy one: the second installment of Dune has perhaps the most stunning special effects of any film so far this decade. Expect Part Two to follow in its predecessor’s footsteps and add some fuel for an Oscar three-peat when Messiah hits in 2026.

P.S. Like last year, the “Should Go to” pick is formulated based off of the online consensus, given that I haven’t decided to waste my life by viewing every movie nominated in all categories.

Best Sound

• And the Nominees Are: A Complete Unknown; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Wicked; The Wild Robot
• And the Oscar Goes to: Dune: Part Two
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Dune: Part Two
• And the Oscar Could Go to: A Complete Unknown
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Gladiator II; Blitz

This race is a little tougher than on first glance; while the first Dune film won in this category three years ago with no problem, that blockbuster won six out of its ten total Academy Award nominations, while Part Two has only been nominated for five awards, less than the total Oscars the first film won, which is particularly peculiar given that Part Two was more successful and arguably superior to Part One. Anyway, the Academy loves giving out this award to films that include music, so the other Timothée Chalamet hit could win it (geez, selfish much hogging two Best Picture nominees this year, Timmy?). However, I’m still inclined to go with Dune here, so I’m sticking with that pick, and nothing can convince me otherwise! (Unless I change my mind.)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• And the Nominees Are: A Different Man; Emilia Pérez; Nosferatu; The Substance; Wicked
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Substance
• And the Oscar Should Go to: The Substance
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Wicked
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga; Gladiator II; Dune: Part Two

While body horror flicks don’t typically get much love at the Dolby Theatre, The Substance has changed that and is easily on-track to get rewarded for its creative gore. (I’m not talking about you, Al.)

Best Production Design

• And the Nominees Are: The Brutalist; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Nosferatu; Wicked
• And the Oscar Goes to: Wicked
• And the Oscar Should Go to: The Brutalist or Wicked
• And the Oscar Could Go to: The Brutalist
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Gladiator II; Blitz; Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

I’ll take this moment to reserve my bragging rights and boast that this was one of two categories for which I correctly predicted all five nominees (the other was Animated Feature). Actually, maybe that’s not crow-worthy; two categories isn’t great. Maybe I should’ve thought this through. . . .

The intricate, fantastical sets of Oz have boded well for Wicked at both the Critics’ Choice Awards (CCAs) and the BAFTAs this year, although I still have a bad taste in my mouth from last year’s disaster of predicting Barbie in Costume Design and Production Design over Poor Things, which ultimately won both. While Dune: Part Two hopes to repeat its precursor’s success in this category from three years ago and The Brutalist is actually all about architectural design (not to mention the precise recreation of the Sistine Chapel in Conclave) the magic of Shiz University will sufficiently enchant voters.

Best Costume Design

• And the Nominees Are: A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Gladiator II; Nosferatu; Wicked
• And the Oscar Goes to: Wicked
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Wicked
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Nosferatu
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Dune: Part Two; Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga; Blitz; Maria

This one’s a decent amount easier to call. Wicked for the win! (Sounds like the tagline to a heavy metal band.)

Side note: this is the only award that Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II is up for. Twenty-four years ago, the first film was nominated for twelve and won five, including Best Picture. Talk about a true slaughtering in the Oscar Colosseum.

Best Cinematography

• And the Nominees Are: The Brutalist; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Maria
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Brutalist
• And the Oscar Should Go to: The Brutalist or Dune: Part Two
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Nosferatu
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Conclave; Nickel Boys

First, can we acknowledge the tragedy of this award’s snub? Stéphane Fontaine did an incredible job on making each frame of Conclave equally fascinating and picturesque, fitting for a film set in one of the most beautifully designed places on Earth: Vatican City. Despite this category calamity, The Brutalist has been hailed for its unique cinematography that harnesses the use of VistaVision, a classic tool from the olden days of Hollywood. Although Dune: Part Two has the flashier shots, and Nosferatu gained some steam from a win at the CCAs, director of photography Lol Crawley will win his first gold named statue.

Best Film Editing

• And the Nominees Are: Anora; The Brutalist; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Wicked
• And the Oscar Goes to: Conclave
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Conclave or Wicked
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Anora
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Challengers; Dune: Part Two

This is one of the more interesting categories. Film Editing is usually an indicator of where the Best Picture race stands, for whatever reason that may be. The last two winners of this award have also been the last two Best Pictures; with that said, Conclave is in the drivers’ seat thanks to snatching the BAFTA a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, the American Cinema Editors Awards, another integral factor in deciding this category, won’t be announced until March 14, so it’s still anybody’s game. If Anora wins, that film may be a lock for Best Picture, while a victory for The Brutalist would be big for that film, as well. Just for sake of ease, I’ll stick with Conclave for its quick cuts and tension-inducing flair.

The Music

Best Original Song

• And the Nominees Are: “El Mal”, Emilia Pérez; “The Journey”, The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird”, Sing Sing; “Mi Camino”, Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late”, Elton John: Never Too Late
• And the Oscar Goes to: “El Mal”
• And the Oscar Should Go to: “The Journey”
• And the Oscar Could Go to: “The Journey”
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: “Compress/Repress”, Challengers; “Kiss the Sky”, The Wild Robot; “Beautiful That Way”, The Last Showgirl

As with Barbie last year, a Picture nominee occupies two slots in this category. This time it’s the controversy-ridden Emilia Pérez, once a strong contender to pick up a multitude of Oscars when it emerged with an impressive 13 nominations; but then, as is seemingly always the case, X ruined everything. (Research it yourself if you’re interested; I’m not ready to plunge into the dark depths of the archetypal old Tweet debate.) Nevertheless, the initially promising musical dramedy’s dreams have largely been dashed thanks to tanking in popularity since the resurfaced Tweets incident, and that has seeped into many pundit’s predictions for gauging how well the film will do. Some, such as the team at Variety, have determined that Emilia Pérez will go 0 for 13, failing to pick up a single Oscar. Others, including myself, believe that Position A is frankly ridiculous (silly people!) and the controversy will not have that devastatingly detrimental of an effect on the movie. Therefore, whereas Variety picked Diane Warren to finally win an Oscar after sixteen nominations (comprising nine consecutive nods) and zero wins, I’m going with “El Mal”, which garnered momentum at the Golden Globes and CCAs, to deliver on whatever potential it has left.

Best Original Score

• And the Nominees Are: The Brutalist; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Wicked; The Wild Robot
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Brutalist
• And the Oscar Should Go to: The Brutalist
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Conclave
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Challengers

It’s a shame that Hans Zimmer’s unsurprisingly brilliant work composing Dune: Part Two was ruled ineligible for a nomination, which meant that there was more opportunity available for another contender to put its foot in the door. At the Globes and CCAs, that was the work of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Challengers, which unjustly failed to even score a nomination (see what I did there?). Therefore, thanks to the BAFTAs, Daniel Blumberg’s orchestral theme to The Brutalist is in prime position to edge out Conclave composer Volker Bertelmann’s arrangements and take home Oscar.

The Features

Best Documentary Feature

• And the Nominees Are: Black Box Diaries; No Other Land; Porcelain War; Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat; Sugarcane
• And the Oscar Goes to: Porcelain War
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Porcelain War
• And the Oscar Could Go to: No Other Land

And now we’re back in No Man’s Land. Yay.

Although Porcelain War is mathematically in third place to win this award, the last two Documentary Features have both featured on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Navalny in 2022 and 20 Days in Mariupol in 2023. Therefore, I’d expect the inspiring story of Porcelain War to carry on that tradition, even if it’s not a certainty; after all, have I learned nothing from witnessing the results of another three-peat attempt earlier this year? (Sorry to throw you under the bus, Mahomes?)

Best International Feature

• And the Nominees Are: Emilia Pérez; Flow; The Girl with the Needle; I’m Still Here; The Seed of the Sacred Fig
• And the Oscar Goes to: Emilia Pérez
• And the Oscar Should Go to: I’m Still Here
• And the Oscar Could Go to: I’m Still Here

This is where the debate about the relevance or irrelevance of Emilia Pérez really rages. The film received a lot of blowback, both critically and socially, after its enormous showing at the nominations announcement, and such criticism has only magnified since then. On the other hand, I’m Still Here received an unforeseen nod for Best Picture, in addition to recognition of Fernanda Torres’ lead performance. That Brazilian biopic has gained momentum in and of itself, although I still think it’d be an unprecedented upset for a thrice-nominated film to beat out another that has a leading thirteen. I’m sticking with Pérez.

Best Animated Feature

• And the Nominees Are: Flow; Inside Out 2; Memoir of a Snail; Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl; The Wild Robot
• And the Oscar Goes to: The Wild Robot
• And the Oscar Should Go to: The Wild Roobt
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Flow
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Moana 2; Transformers One

Although the International Feature-nominated Flow looked to create a close race when it won the Golden Globe back in January, The Wild Robot has taken home top prizes at the CCAs, PGAs, and Annie Awards. Plus, it’s nominated in two other categories, making for tough competition thanks to director Chris Saunders’ beautiful work on the DreamWorks family film.

The Scripts

Best Adapted Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Nickel Boys; Sing Sing
• And the Oscar Goes to: Conclave
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Nickel Boys
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Nickel Boys
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Dune: Part Two

Not a tough one. Conclave‘s sharp dialogue and cleverly weaved web of mystery will earn writer Peter Straughan some gold.

(Notice how I’m speeding things up? Yeah, I’m cutting it close here.)

Best Original Screenplay

• And the Nominees Are: Anora; The Brutalist; A Real Pain; September 5; The Substance
• And the Oscar Goes to: Anora
• And the Oscar Should Go to: A Real Pain
• And the Oscar Could Go to: The Substance
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Challengers

This one’s a bit harder to decide upon. Had Jesse Eisenberg’s beloved directorial debut A Real Pain made it into the Picture category, it’d be even harder. With its wacky plot and innovative technique, Coralie Fargeat’s script for The Substance is the main opposition to critical darling Anora, which nabbed writer-director Sean Baker a much-needed WGA. There could certainly be an upset, although I’m trusting Baker’s comedic writing to add more fuel to Anora‘s late-season awards rampage.

The Actors & Actresses

Best Supporting Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
• And the Oscar Goes to: Kieran Culkin
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Kieran Culkin or Edward Norton
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Are we really going to play this game?
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Denzel Washington, Gladiator II; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

C’mon, do I need to provide an explanation? Macaulay’s little brother, on a career-high after winning a mass of awards for 2023’s final season of Succession, is the only nominee in this category to win the Golden Globe, BAFTA, CCA, and SAG, much like Robert Downey Jr. last year. No debate necessary.

Best Supporting Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
• And the Oscar Goes to: Zoe Saldaña
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Monica Barbaro or Ariana Grande
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Ariana Grande
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Margaret Qualley, The Substance; Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez; Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

Had Selena Gomez received a nomination for her role in Emilia Pérez, her film would be tied with the most nominations in Oscar history. (Thanks goodness Monica Barbaro stole her slot. Close call.) Anyway, this is the same story as Supporting Actor: Saldaña has swept all the awards shows. It’s a done deal. (Hopefully that arrogance doesn’t come back to bite me where it hurts.)

Best Actress

• And the Nominees Are: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
• And the Oscar Goes to: Demi Moore
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Fernanda Torres
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Mikey Madison
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

This is usually how the Oscars acting races work: supporting winners are clear, the leads are a little murkier. In this case, pre-awards season, Demi Moore was not viewed as a major contender, and now she’s knocking on the door of a career comeback, Oscar-in-hand. However, Mikey Madison as the titular Anora may shake things up a bit. While logic and mathematics heavily favor Moore, don’t count out Madison if the voters really enjoy Anora, or even Fernanda Torres’ powerful role, for that matter.

Best Actor

• And the Nominees Are: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
• And the Oscar Goes to: Adrien Brody
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Timothée Chalamet
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Timothée Chalamet
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Daniel Craig, Queer; Hugh Grant, Heretic

Li’l Timmy Tim (his actual rapper name from more embarrassing past days) put up a good fight by winning the SAG for his immersive performance as Bob Dylan, but this has been Adrien Brody’s category all along. Count on him to win his second Best Actor Oscar, although I wouldn’t necessarily include kissing Halle Berry on the Bingo! card this time around.

The One Called “Best Director”

Best Director

• And the Nominees Are: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
• And the Oscar Goes to: Sean Baker
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Sean Baker or Brady Corbet
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Brady Corbet
• And the Honorable Mentions Are: Edward Berger, Conclave; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

I won’t even go into detail about why I’m calling this projection for Sean Baker, given that my reasoning is essentially the same for the next category, the biggin’. Stay tuned.

The Ultimate Prize

Best Picture

• And the Nominees Are:
• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

• And the Oscar Goes to: Anora
• And the Oscar Should Go to: Depends on who you ask
• And the Oscar Could Go to: Conclave
• Honorable Mentions: Sing Sing; A Real Pain; Gladiator II

I don’t even have any good reasons for this, except that Anora has done exceedingly well with the Guild shows, and that has historically poured over into the Academy Awards. I certainly wouldn’t count out Conclave, The Brutalist, or even Emilia Pérez, although I feel safely confident asserting that Anora will go home with three Oscars, including Best Picture.

Well, there ya have it! The annual Oscars post on steroids. Wish me luck as I attempt to regain the Golden Seal of the Family Bet, but most importantly, enjoy the Oscars! (Or don’t. Maybe you’re a sports person. No judgment.)

See you next time, hopefully as the reigning champion once again.

Whiz Kid out